A field guide to reading predictions.
Clear, independent guides to accuracy, evidence, scoring, forecasting platforms, and the limits of prediction records.
What Is Prediction Accuracy? A Practical Guide to Evaluating Forecasts
Prediction accuracy is more than counting correct calls. Learn how to define, compare, and interpret forecasting performance fairly.
Read the guide →Truth Tracking vs. Trackrecord.info vs. Predictions.cc
A neutral comparison of three public prediction-record platforms: what each tracks, how results are verified, and which use cases each serves best.
Read comparison →Foundations
The vocabulary and evidence behind meaningful accuracy claims.
Accuracy Rate, Hit Rate, and Miss Rate Explained
Learn how accuracy, hit rate, and miss rate are calculated, why denominators matter, and how to interpret forecasting percentages responsibly.
Read article → 02How Many Predictions Are Needed to Judge a Forecaster?
There is no universal minimum, but larger and more consistent prediction records provide stronger evidence than short runs of success or failure.
Read article → 03What Is Prediction Accuracy? A Practical Guide to Evaluating Forecasts
Prediction accuracy is more than counting correct calls. Learn how to define, compare, and interpret forecasting performance fairly.
Read article → 04What Makes a Prediction Verifiable?
A prediction is verifiable when independent readers can determine what was claimed, when it was made, and whether the defined outcome occurred.
Read article → 05Why Prediction Accuracy Matters
Prediction records help people evaluate expertise, uncertainty, and decision-making more clearly—but accuracy must be interpreted carefully.
Read article →Evaluation Methods
How to score, compare, and interpret forecasting records.
How to Read a Forecaster's Track Record
A practical guide to interpreting a forecasting record, including sample size, time horizons, uncertainty, scoring rules, and source evidence.
Read article → 07How to Score a Prediction Fairly
A practical framework for evaluating predictions consistently, including deadlines, evidence, partial outcomes, and ambiguous claims.
Read article → 08Why Prediction Leaderboards Can Be Misleading
Leaderboards can make forecasting records easier to compare, but rankings may hide differences in sample size, difficulty, timing, and scoring rules.
Read article →Comparison desk
How tracking platforms and forecasting systems differ in practice.
Truth Tracking vs. Metaculus and Prediction Markets
A comparison of retrospective public-prediction audits, probabilistic forecasting platforms, and prediction markets.
Read comparison → 10Truth Tracking vs. Trackrecord.info vs. Predictions.cc
A neutral comparison of three public prediction-record platforms: what each tracks, how results are verified, and which use cases each serves best.
Read comparison → 11What Makes a Prediction-Tracking Website Useful?
A neutral framework for evaluating prediction-tracking websites, including coverage, evidence, scoring rules, transparency, and usability.
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