Aswath Damodaran
YouTube · UCLvnJL8htRR1T9cbSccaoVw · Channel ↗
43Predictions logged
34Decided
14Bullseye
4Partial
16Miss
47%Hit-rate
+35.0%Avg P/L
💸 Spectacular Misses
NVDA SHORT
I just told you my value is 240 dollars per [share] the stock is trading at 410. and I should sell right ... so I split the difference I know it's it's weaseli…
VS Reality
Miss: Entry $40.99 → Exit $144.98 · P/L -100.0% · vs SPY -142.1% · Target $240.00
NVDA SHORT
And invid at 56% [overvalued]... Now Stocks at 680 you know part of me says sell everything you've got left but I don't think I want to I want to I think I'll …
VS Reality
Miss: Entry $72.09 → Exit $190.03 · P/L -100.0% · vs SPY -141.9%
GOOGL SHORT
Two were mildly overvalued, Google and Netflix, overvalued by less than 10%.
VS Reality
Miss: Entry $75.19 → Exit $137.18 · P/L -82.4% · vs SPY -116.7%
PTON LONG
if I value Peloton today at 25 and it's trading at 11. I need to go and buy
VS Reality
Miss: Entry $28.02 → Exit $16.36 · P/L -41.6% · vs SPY -33.8% · Target $25.00
MSFT SHORT
Two were significantly overvalued, Amazon and Microsoft.
VS Reality
Miss: Entry $199.87 → Exit $282.73 · P/L -41.5% · vs SPY -75.7%
^GSPC SHORT
balanced effect the value that i get for the index is about 2926 i don't want to create false precision here but my valuation with my story is about 2900 to 29…
VS Reality
Miss: Entry $3,066.59 → Exit $4,246.59 · P/L -38.5% · vs SPY -78.9% · Target $2,926.00
AMZN LONG
i said google and amazon looked a little overvalued i'm not ready to buy them yet with this crisis that changed and i did buy google and amazon the very limit …
VS Reality
Miss: Entry $147.37 → Exit $96.20 · P/L -34.7% · vs SPY -27.5%
AAPL SHORT
And my most overvalued stock was Apple.
VS Reality
Miss: Entry $111.17 → Exit $147.53 · P/L -32.7% · vs SPY -67.0%
SPY SHORT
i take my expected cash flows with these projections discount them back to today and i get a value slightly higher than 3100 the market was trading at 32.70 on…
VS Reality
Miss: Entry $336.10 → Exit $439.40 · P/L -30.7% · vs SPY -61.5%
GOOGL LONG
i said google and amazon looked a little overvalued i'm not ready to buy them yet with this crisis that changed and i did buy google and amazon the very limit …
VS Reality
Miss: Entry $128.14 → Exit $95.32 · P/L -25.6% · vs SPY -18.4%
TSLA SHORT
but at 177 it is still lower than the stock price for the day I did it was 210 dollars
VS Reality
Miss: Entry $194.70 → Exit $238.83 · P/L -22.7% · vs SPY -37.1% · Target $177.00
META LONG
buying back facebook and it goes back in
VS Reality
Miss: Entry $217.84 → Exit $178.03 · P/L -18.3% · vs SPY -13.5%
🎯 Spot-On Calls
META LONG
in February 2022 I did value Facebook on my blog ... the value per share that I got was about three forty six dollars February 2022 of course the stock was at …
VS Reality
Bullseye: Entry $116.17 → Exit $608.44 · P/L +423.8% · vs SPY +348.1% · Target $346.00
META LONG
When I did this only Facebook was significantly undervalued. I bought it there
VS Reality
Bullseye: Entry $198.48 → Exit $641.88 · P/L +223.4% · vs SPY +169.2%
^TNX LONG
t bond rate can increase in fact in the
VS Reality
Bullseye: Entry $1.51 → Exit $3.79 · P/L +150.9% · vs SPY +169.4%
TSLA LONG
other than Tesla which I bought a couple couple of weeks ago at close to $180 per share the other six companies I bought at different points in time... it look…
VS Reality
Bullseye: Entry $193.57 → Exit $417.32 · P/L +115.6% · vs SPY +73.7%
AMZN LONG
I bought Amazon two, you know, two weeks ago it was at when I bought it it was $3,000 per share, it dropped to 2,700, but I have faith. Now, of course, 10 for …
VS Reality
Bullseye: Entry $110.81 → Exit $205.17 · P/L +85.2% · vs SPY +31.0%
CHMF.ME LONG
after I did evaluation I did buy the
VS Reality
Bullseye: Entry $354.58 → Exit $599.99 · P/L +69.2% · vs SPY +43.7%
TSLA LONG
I've turned off the reports from my online broker so she doesn't even know that I bought Tesla three weeks ago
VS Reality
Bullseye: Entry $161.48 → Exit $254.11 · P/L +57.4% · vs SPY +49.4%
GME SHORT
with that upbeat story the value that i get is 47 dollars per share of course i could be wrong and perhaps it's worth a lot more i won't pre-judge what you pai…
VS Reality
Bullseye: Entry $56.25 → Exit $28.15 · P/L +50.0% · vs SPY +28.0% · Target $47.00
TSLA SHORT
the value that i get for the equity is about 700 billion dollars now and if you take out just they have the option area but 640 billion for equity in common st…
VS Reality
Bullseye: Entry $387.65 → Exit $197.08 · P/L +49.2% · vs SPY +66.9%
BYND SHORT
do I bought a two-month option a put
option with a one $20 strike breast pain
VS Reality
Bullseye: Entry $131.39 → Exit $75.90 · P/L +42.2% · vs SPY +36.1% · Target $120.00
TSLA SHORT
a few months ago i value tesla's talk it hit a thousand i did a discounted cash flow evaluation i tried every optimistic assumption i could i came up with the …
VS Reality
Bullseye: Entry $310.42 → Exit $181.41 · P/L +41.6% · vs SPY +49.4% · Target $640.00
META LONG
I found only one of the six to be under valued, and it was Facebook.
VS Reality
Bullseye: Entry $259.13 → Exit $363.71 · P/L +40.4% · vs SPY +6.1%
🤏 Partial
AMZN SHORT
Two were significantly overvalued, Amazon and Microsoft.
VS Reality
Partial: Entry $159.12 → Exit $164.95 · P/L -3.7% · vs SPY -37.9%
GLD LONG
go with gold you make a much higher
VS Reality
Partial: Entry $170.96 → Exit $171.06 · P/L +0.1% · vs SPY +18.6%
GME SHORT
my base case valuation of gamestop which gave me a value of about 28 dollars i did this at the same time i did my best case valuation last week which gave me a…
VS Reality
Partial: Entry $62.09 → Exit $32.03 · P/L +48.4% · vs SPY +49.7% · Target $28.17
TSLA LONG
a limit by at 180
VS Reality
Partial: Entry $11.93 → Exit $58.86 · P/L +393.4% · vs SPY +377.3% · Target $190.00
🔮 Pending Verdicts
TSLA SHORT
I did own the Max 7 coming into the year. I sold Tesla shortly as the year began because I felt that no political decisions. It was really based upon the fact …
VS Reality
Horizon: 2027-04-07 · 307 days remaining
C LONG
Yesterday I did pull the trigger on City where I bought city city trades at a half of Book value it has below average returns and Equity it's it's well below i…
VS Reality
Horizon: 2028-05-08 · 704 days remaining
📋 All Predictions
36 total · click chips to filter
Verdict
Horizon
| Date | Prediction | Actual | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-07 → 2027-04-07▶ · 37:15 | TSLA SHORT I did own the Max 7 coming into the year. I sold Tesla shortly as the year began because I felt that no political decisions. It was really based upon the fact that I could not see the the revenues an… | Horizon: 2027-04-07 · 307 days remaining | Pending -5.9% |
| 2024-04-15 → 2025-04-15▶ · 10:34 | TSLA LONG I've turned off the reports from my online broker so she doesn't even know that I bought Tesla three weeks ago | Bullseye: Entry $161.48 → Exit $254.11 · P/L +57.4% · vs SPY +49.4% | Hit +57.4% |
| 2024-04-15 → 2025-04-15▶ · 28:15 | NVDA SHORT → $440.00 when I valued inedia in February I came up with remember value 440 the stock was trading at 800 and I knew I would be asked the question could Nvidia be worth $800 per share so r a simulation you kno… | Bullseye: Entry $85.95 → Exit $112.17 · P/L -30.5% · vs SPY -38.4% · Target $440.00 | Hit -30.5% |
| 2024-02-09 → 2026-02-09▶ · 24:46 | TSLA LONG other than Tesla which I bought a couple couple of weeks ago at close to $180 per share the other six companies I bought at different points in time... it looks like Tesla and meta are not really ove… | Bullseye: Entry $193.57 → Exit $417.32 · P/L +115.6% · vs SPY +73.7% | Hit +115.6% |
| 2024-02-09 → 2026-02-09▶ · 29:40 | NVDA SHORT And invid at 56% [overvalued]... Now Stocks at 680 you know part of me says sell everything you've got left but I don't think I want to I want to I think I'll sell another half of the Holdings and um… | Miss: Entry $72.09 → Exit $190.03 · P/L -100.0% · vs SPY -141.9% | Miss -100.0% |
| 2023-06-13 → 2025-06-12▶ · 40:00 | NVDA SHORT → $240.00 I just told you my value is 240 dollars per [share] the stock is trading at 410. and I should sell right ... so I split the difference I know it's it's weaseling out of the choice but I split the dif… | Miss: Entry $40.99 → Exit $144.98 · P/L -100.0% · vs SPY -142.1% · Target $240.00 | Miss -100.0% |
| 2023-05-08 → 2028-05-08▶ · 1:00:45 | C LONG → $68.60 Yesterday I did pull the trigger on City where I bought city city trades at a half of Book value it has below average returns and Equity it's it's well below it's cost of equity I did an intrinsic va… | Horizon: 2028-05-08 · 704 days remaining | Pending |
| 2023-02-01 → 2024-02-01▶ · 07:10 | TSLA SHORT → $130.00 i found the company to be overvalued albeit slightly when I did my valuation | Miss: Entry $181.41 → Exit $188.86 · P/L -4.1% · vs SPY -25.0% · Target $130.00 | Miss -4.1% |
| 2023-01-26 → 2024-01-26▶ · 20:01 | TSLA SHORT → $130.00 the value I get is about 130 dollars per share on the day that I value the company which was yesterday before the earnings report came out stock was trading at 143.51 please buy my estimates it looks… | Miss: Entry $160.27 → Exit $183.25 · P/L -14.3% · vs SPY -36.6% · Target $130.00 | Miss -14.3% |
| 2022-12-01 → 2023-12-01▶ · 06:38 | TSLA SHORT → $177.00 but at 177 it is still lower than the stock price for the day I did it was 210 dollars | Miss: Entry $194.70 → Exit $238.83 · P/L -22.7% · vs SPY -37.1% · Target $177.00 | Miss -22.7% |
| 2022-11-15 → 2025-11-15▶ · 15:48 | META LONG → $346.00 in February 2022 I did value Facebook on my blog ... the value per share that I got was about three forty six dollars February 2022 of course the stock was at 220 ... since I already bought Facebook … | Bullseye: Entry $116.17 → Exit $608.44 · P/L +423.8% · vs SPY +348.1% · Target $346.00 | Hit +423.8% |
| 2022-05-15 → 2025-05-15▶ · 1:44:52 | META LONG When I did this only Facebook was significantly undervalued. I bought it there | Bullseye: Entry $198.48 → Exit $641.88 · P/L +223.4% · vs SPY +169.2% | Hit +223.4% |
| 2022-05-15 → 2025-05-15▶ · 1:40:51 | AMZN LONG I bought Amazon two, you know, two weeks ago it was at when I bought it it was $3,000 per share, it dropped to 2,700, but I have faith. Now, of course, 10 for one stock split, it Who knows what the w… | Bullseye: Entry $110.81 → Exit $205.17 · P/L +85.2% · vs SPY +31.0% | Hit +85.2% |
| 2022-03-15 → 2023-03-15▶ · 17:59 | GOOGL LONG i said google and amazon looked a little overvalued i'm not ready to buy them yet with this crisis that changed and i did buy google and amazon the very limit buys based on my valuation | Miss: Entry $128.14 → Exit $95.32 · P/L -25.6% · vs SPY -18.4% | Miss -25.6% |
| 2022-03-15 → 2023-03-15▶ · 17:59 | AMZN LONG i said google and amazon looked a little overvalued i'm not ready to buy them yet with this crisis that changed and i did buy google and amazon the very limit buys based on my valuation | Miss: Entry $147.37 → Exit $96.20 · P/L -34.7% · vs SPY -27.5% | Miss -34.7% |
| 2022-02-12 → 2023-02-12▶ · 27:07 | META LONG buying back facebook and it goes back in | Miss: Entry $217.84 → Exit $178.03 · P/L -18.3% · vs SPY -13.5% | Miss -18.3% |
| 2022-02-01 → 2023-02-01▶ · 32:00 | TSLA SHORT → $640.00 a few months ago i value tesla's talk it hit a thousand i did a discounted cash flow evaluation i tried every optimistic assumption i could i came up with the value of about 640 dollars per share sto… | Bullseye: Entry $310.42 → Exit $181.41 · P/L +41.6% · vs SPY +49.4% · Target $640.00 | Hit +41.6% |
| 2022-02-01 → 2023-02-01▶ · 1:03:46 | PTON LONG → $25.00 if I value Peloton today at 25 and it's trading at 11. I need to go and buy | Miss: Entry $28.02 → Exit $16.36 · P/L -41.6% · vs SPY -33.8% · Target $25.00 | Miss -41.6% |
| 2022-01-01 → 2023-01-01▶ | ^TNX LONG t bond rate can increase in fact in the | Bullseye: Entry $1.51 → Exit $3.79 · P/L +150.9% · vs SPY +169.4% | Hit +150.9% |
| 2022-01-01 → 2023-01-01▶ | GLD LONG go with gold you make a much higher | Partial: Entry $170.96 → Exit $171.06 · P/L +0.1% · vs SPY +18.6% | Partial +0.1% |
| 2021-11-07 → 2022-11-07▶ · 24:42 | TSLA SHORT the value that i get for the equity is about 700 billion dollars now and if you take out just they have the option area but 640 billion for equity in common stock stocks trading at over a trillion at… | Bullseye: Entry $387.65 → Exit $197.08 · P/L +49.2% · vs SPY +66.9% | Hit +49.2% |
| 2021-06-05 → 2022-06-05▶ · 13:38 | GME SHORT → $28.17 my base case valuation of gamestop which gave me a value of about 28 dollars i did this at the same time i did my best case valuation last week which gave me a value of 47 and i added two line items … | Partial: Entry $62.09 → Exit $32.03 · P/L +48.4% · vs SPY +49.7% · Target $28.17 | Partial +48.4% |
| 2021-02-01 → 2022-02-01▶ · 15:17 | GME SHORT → $47.00 with that upbeat story the value that i get is 47 dollars per share of course i could be wrong and perhaps it's worth a lot more i won't pre-judge what you paid but let's see what the value per share… | Bullseye: Entry $56.25 → Exit $28.15 · P/L +50.0% · vs SPY +28.0% · Target $47.00 | Hit +50.0% |
| 2020-11-15 → 2021-11-15▶ · 21:19 | SPY SHORT i take my expected cash flows with these projections discount them back to today and i get a value slightly higher than 3100 the market was trading at 32.70 on november 1st when i did this valuation … | Miss: Entry $336.10 → Exit $439.40 · P/L -30.7% · vs SPY -61.5% | Miss -30.7% |
| 2020-08-16 → 2021-08-16▶ · 24:35 | NFLX SHORT Two were mildly overvalued, Google and Netflix, overvalued by less than 10%. | Miss: Entry $48.24 → Exit $51.79 · P/L -7.4% · vs SPY -41.6% | Miss -7.4% |
| 2020-08-16 → 2021-08-16▶ · 24:41 | MSFT SHORT Two were significantly overvalued, Amazon and Microsoft. | Miss: Entry $199.87 → Exit $282.73 · P/L -41.5% · vs SPY -75.7% | Miss -41.5% |
| 2020-08-16 → 2021-08-16▶ · 24:30 | META LONG I found only one of the six to be under valued, and it was Facebook. | Bullseye: Entry $259.13 → Exit $363.71 · P/L +40.4% · vs SPY +6.1% | Hit +40.4% |
| 2020-08-16 → 2021-08-16▶ · 24:35 | GOOGL SHORT Two were mildly overvalued, Google and Netflix, overvalued by less than 10%. | Miss: Entry $75.19 → Exit $137.18 · P/L -82.4% · vs SPY -116.7% | Miss -82.4% |
| 2020-08-16 → 2021-08-16▶ · 24:41 | AMZN SHORT Two were significantly overvalued, Amazon and Microsoft. | Partial: Entry $159.12 → Exit $164.95 · P/L -3.7% · vs SPY -37.9% | Partial -3.7% |
| 2020-08-16 → 2021-08-16▶ · 24:43 | AAPL SHORT And my most overvalued stock was Apple. | Miss: Entry $111.17 → Exit $147.53 · P/L -32.7% · vs SPY -67.0% | Miss -32.7% |
| 2020-06-15 → 2021-06-15▶ · 21:03 | ^GSPC SHORT → $2,926.00 balanced effect the value that i get for the index is about 2926 i don't want to create false precision here but my valuation with my story is about 2900 to 2950 which was about six percent lower tha… | Miss: Entry $3,066.59 → Exit $4,246.59 · P/L -38.5% · vs SPY -78.9% · Target $2,926.00 | Miss -38.5% |
| 2019-10-11 → 2020-10-11▶ · 25:10 | LEVI LONG dropped to $19 or 1896 I bought no Levi
Strauss at 1896 I struggle with uber and | Miss: Entry $15.05 → Exit $13.80 · P/L -8.3% · vs SPY -29.6% | Miss -8.3% |
| 2019-10-11 → 2019-12-11▶ · 26:32 | BYND SHORT → $120.00 do I bought a two-month option a put
option with a one $20 strike breast pain | Bullseye: Entry $131.39 → Exit $75.90 · P/L +42.2% · vs SPY +36.1% · Target $120.00 | Hit +42.2% |
| 2019-06-03 → 2020-06-03▶ · 27:32 | TSLA LONG → $190.00 a limit by at 180 | Partial: Entry $11.93 → Exit $58.86 · P/L +393.4% · vs SPY +377.3% · Target $190.00 | Partial +393.4% |
| 2018-06-28 → 2019-06-28▶ · 19:34 | TSLA SHORT → $186.00 I would not invest in the stock | Bullseye: Entry $23.33 → Exit $14.90 · P/L +36.1% · vs SPY +25.8% · Target $186.00 | Hit +36.1% |
| 2017-05-02 → 2020-05-02▶ | CHMF.ME LONG after I did evaluation I did buy the | Bullseye: Entry $354.58 → Exit $599.99 · P/L +69.2% · vs SPY +43.7% | Hit +69.2% |