#Macro / FX / Rates · Pundit Scoreboard · Stock calls

112 calls 62 decided 13 hits 30 partial 19 misses 49 pending

🏆 The Scoreboard

⚡ Short <60 days

📈 Mid 60-360 days

🌳 Long >360 days

💡 Three time horizons: Short <60d · Mid 60-360d · Long >360d
💰 Avg P/L = equal-weight blind-follower model — average return per decided call

💸 Spectacular Misses

Sorted by loss magnitude. Up to 3 cards per pundit.

ARK Invest · 2021-10-02
🌳 Long #Macro / FX / Rates
Miss
MACRO:US10Y SHORT
treasuries will they'll certainly stay low and and perhaps rally more maybe even breaking below the 112 we saw a month or so ago
VS Reality
Miss: Entry $1.48 → Exit $3.65 · P/L -100.0% · vs SPY -85.7% · Target $1.12
🌳 Long #Macro / FX / Rates
Miss
MACRO:WTI LONG
high probability that crude oil is actually going to surge back at the highs
VS Reality
Miss: Entry $79.26 → Exit $61.57 · P/L -22.3% · vs SPY -33.4% · Target $100.00
Gareth Soloway · 2026-02-14
⚡ Short #Macro / FX / Rates
Miss
MACRO:SILVER SHORT
near-term, few days neutral, few weeks downside and over the next couple months, if we get down to that level, we start to look for the bigger move to the upsi…
VS Reality
Miss: Entry $77.85 → Exit $92.68 · P/L -19.1% · vs SPY -19.7%
Meet Kevin · 2024-08-21
📈 Mid #Macro / FX / Rates
Miss
DXY SHORT
people think that the value of the dollar which I think will fall about 10% very soon or more
VS Reality
Miss: Entry $101.04 → Exit $106.97 · P/L -5.9% · vs SPY -12.1%
ARK Invest · 2024-01-06
📈 Mid #Macro / FX / Rates
Miss
MACRO:US10Y SHORT
we do believe that uh that interest rates are the long-term interest rates are going to continue down this year and that they could they could hit 2%
VS Reality
Miss: Entry $4.04 → Exit $4.57 · P/L -13.1% · vs SPY -40.0% · Target $2.00
Gareth Soloway · 2024-12-19
🌳 Long #Macro / FX / Rates
Miss
USO LONG
this is still favoring upside move here on oil
VS Reality
Miss: Entry $72.61 → Exit $68.03 · P/L -6.3% · vs SPY -24.2%
ARK Invest · 2024-01-04
🌳 Long #Macro / FX / Rates
Miss
UUP SHORT
I also think that the dollar is going to become increasingly volatile to the downside dollar inflation will persist
VS Reality
Miss: Entry $25.36 → Exit $28.60 · P/L -12.8% · vs SPY -41.1%
Gareth Soloway · 2026-02-23
⚡ Short #Macro / FX / Rates
Miss
MACRO:SILVER LONG
silver in the near term, the micro pattern is likely going to go and retest this level up here. But the thing is... you still have to get through this massive …
VS Reality
Miss: Entry $86.52 → Exit $84.03 · P/L -2.9% · vs SPY -2.3% · Target $91.00

🎯 Spot-On Calls

Sorted by realized gain. Up to 3 per pundit.

🌳 Long #Macro / FX / Rates
Hit
INDEX:TNX LONG
the 10-year yield will start to move higher. And it doesn't need to move higher by much. Just a little move higher will serve as a leading indicator that the m…
VS Reality
Bullseye: Entry $1.54 → Exit $3.88 · P/L +151.4% · vs SPY +170.0%
Aswath Damodaran · 2022-01-01
🌳 Long #Macro / FX / Rates
Hit
^TNX LONG
t bond rate can increase in fact in the
VS Reality
Bullseye: Entry $1.51 → Exit $3.79 · P/L +150.9% · vs SPY +169.4%
Gareth Soloway · 2025-12-09
📈 Mid #Macro / FX / Rates
Hit
MACRO:SILVER LONG
right now, this is the most likely outcome with an upside target of $61 to $62 per ounce.
VS Reality
Bullseye: Entry $60.17 → Exit $84.03 · P/L +39.7% · vs SPY +40.1% · Target $61.50
IBD Live · 2023-10-03
🌳 Long #Macro / FX / Rates
Hit
^TNX SHORT
we we've the the Relentless rise has to stop
VS Reality
Bullseye: Entry $4.80 → Exit $3.85 · P/L +19.8% · vs SPY -16.7%
ARK Invest · 2023-10-07
🌳 Long #Macro / FX / Rates
Hit
MACRO:US10Y SHORT
many people are making the point that that the 40-year bull market in bonds is over um we don't think that's the case
VS Reality
Bullseye: Entry $4.78 → Exit $4.03 · P/L +15.8% · vs SPY -18.1%
TheChartGuys · 2025-09-20
⚡ Short #Macro / FX / Rates
Hit
SLV LONG
Silver already got the bull flag confirming right off EMA2. Very strong and healthy.
VS Reality
Bullseye: Entry $39.04 → Exit $43.52 · P/L +11.5% · vs SPY +10.6%
Gareth Soloway · 2025-12-12
📈 Mid #Macro / FX / Rates
Hit
MACRO:GOLD LONG
we're looking at this 4,400 level on gold as resistance. First target is very easy to find. You have your all-time high.
VS Reality
Bullseye: Entry $4,300.10 → Exit $5,115.80 · P/L +19.0% · vs SPY +21.0% · Target $4,400.00
🌳 Long #Macro / FX / Rates
Hit
DX-Y.NYB LONG
short squeeze in the United States dollar, causing the dollar index to shoot significantly higher. That will poke a massive hole in the market rally
VS Reality
Bullseye: Entry $89.94 → Exit $95.67 · P/L +6.4% · vs SPY -22.4%
TheChartGuys · 2025-09-20
⚡ Short #Macro / FX / Rates
Hit
GLD LONG
Gold really strong daily higher low. Well, not really strong, just a standard healthy daily higher low.
VS Reality
Bullseye: Entry $339.18 → Exit $357.64 · P/L +5.4% · vs SPY +4.6%
Gareth Soloway · 2026-01-20
📈 Mid #Macro / FX / Rates
Hit
SLV SHORT
The charts are telling me that silver is at resistance... silver is the one that to me in a technical sense based on probabilities has the higher probability o…
VS Reality
Bullseye: Entry $85.39 → Exit $72.15 · P/L +15.5% · vs SPY +10.6%
^TNX LONG
now we're eyeing three and a half that could be a psychological number where we see buying of bonds
VS Reality
Bullseye: Entry $3.37 → Exit $3.42 · P/L +1.7% · vs SPY -3.6% · Target $3.50

🔮 Pending Verdicts

Bold calls whose horizon hasn't expired yet. Bullseye or miss?

ARK Invest · 2025-06-07
🌳 Long #Macro / FX / Rates
Pending
MACRO:US10Y SHORT
we think interest rates will come down um before all is said and done
VS Reality
Horizon: 2026-06-07 · 3 days remaining
Gareth Soloway · 2026-01-05
📈 Mid #Macro / FX / Rates
Pending
MACRO:WTI LONG
this could be the play, the commodity play of 2026, at least for the first half, could be the best performer out there.
VS Reality
Horizon: 2026-06-30 · 26 days remaining
Benjamin Cowen · 2025-07-31
🌳 Long #Macro / FX / Rates
Pending
^TNX LONG
I've been very adamant that I I think the 10-year yield is likely heading back up here uh to 5%
VS Reality
Horizon: 2026-07-31 · 57 days remaining
ZipTrader · 2026-02-02
📈 Mid #Macro / FX / Rates
Pending
MACRO:GOLD LONG
it's going to set some people up for massive gains later on this year.
VS Reality
Horizon: 2026-12-31 · 210 days remaining
Gareth Soloway · 2026-01-15
📈 Mid #Macro / FX / Rates
Pending
MACRO:GOLD LONG
I still think we're going to touch that 5,000 at some point this year, maybe even in the first half of this year.
VS Reality
Horizon: 2026-06-30 · 26 days remaining
Benjamin Cowen · 2026-05-23
📈 Mid #Macro / FX / Rates
Pending
FEDFUNDS FLAT
there is a 98% chance the Fed holds rates constant in late April... still over a 90% chance the Fed does not lower rates until October of this year
VS Reality
Horizon: 2026-10-31 · 149 days remaining
ZipTrader · 2026-02-02
📈 Mid #Macro / FX / Rates
Pending
MACRO:SILVER LONG
it's going to set some people up for massive gains later on this year.
VS Reality
Horizon: 2026-12-31 · 210 days remaining
ARK Invest · 2026-01-14
🌳 Long #Macro / FX / Rates
Pending
UUP LONG
I actually think that's going to happen again if we get the the this Fed controversy behind us because the Trump policies are Reagan's policies and some of the…
VS Reality
Horizon: 2027-01-14 · 224 days remaining
Gareth Soloway · 2026-04-07
📈 Mid #Macro / FX / Rates
Pending
MACRO:GOLD SHORT
we're going to likely going to head a lower on gold and continue down ultimately you guys know my bigger long term our mid term I should say thesis which is an…
VS Reality
Horizon: 2026-07-07 · 33 days remaining
Benjamin Cowen · 2026-02-13
📈 Mid #Macro / FX / Rates
Pending
BTC/GLD SHORT
my argument here is that Bitcoin will likely drop another call it 30% against gold this year.
VS Reality
Horizon: 2026-12-31 · 210 days remaining
ZipTrader · 2026-01-05
🌳 Long #Macro / FX / Rates
Pending
SLV LONG
We're going to talk about why silver and gold prices are skyrocketing and why their suppression is reversing. And even though the volatility of the last couple…
VS Reality
Horizon: 2027-01-05 · 215 days remaining
ARK Invest · 2025-12-05
🌳 Long #Macro / FX / Rates
Pending
INDEX:TNX SHORT
My my guess is we we will see a leg down uh toward that two and a half 3% range uh and that will be uh closer to the new range uh for for the next for the next…
VS Reality
Horizon: 2028-12-05 · 915 days remaining