#Macro / FX / Rates · Pundit Scoreboard · Stock calls

111 calls 70 decided 17 hits 33 partial 20 misses 41 pending

🏆 The Scoreboard

📈 Mid 60-360 days

🌳 Long >360 days

💡 Three time horizons: Short <60d · Mid 60-360d · Long >360d
💰 Avg P/L = equal-weight blind-follower model — average return per decided call

💸 Spectacular Misses

Sorted by loss magnitude. Up to 3 cards per pundit.

ARK Invest · 2021-10-02
🌳 Long #Macro / FX / Rates
Miss
MACRO:US10Y SHORT
treasuries will they'll certainly stay low and and perhaps rally more maybe even breaking below the 112 we saw a month or so ago
VS Reality
Miss: Entry $1.48 → Exit $3.65 · P/L -100.0% · vs SPY -85.7% · Target $1.12
🌳 Long #Macro / FX / Rates
Miss
MACRO:WTI LONG
high probability that crude oil is actually going to surge back at the highs
VS Reality
Miss: Entry $79.26 → Exit $61.57 · P/L -22.3% · vs SPY -33.4% · Target $100.00
Gareth Soloway · 2026-02-14
⚡ Short #Macro / FX / Rates
Miss
MACRO:SILVER SHORT
near-term, few days neutral, few weeks downside and over the next couple months, if we get down to that level, we start to look for the bigger move to the upsi…
VS Reality
Miss: Entry $77.85 → Exit $92.68 · P/L -19.1% · vs SPY -19.7%
Meet Kevin · 2024-08-21
📈 Mid #Macro / FX / Rates
Miss
DXY SHORT
people think that the value of the dollar which I think will fall about 10% very soon or more
VS Reality
Miss: Entry $101.04 → Exit $106.97 · P/L -5.9% · vs SPY -12.1%
ARK Invest · 2025-06-07
🌳 Long #Macro / FX / Rates
Miss
MACRO:US10Y SHORT
we think interest rates will come down um before all is said and done
VS Reality
Miss: P/L -58.0% · vs SPY +2252.0%
Gareth Soloway · 2024-12-19
🌳 Long #Macro / FX / Rates
Miss
USO LONG
this is still favoring upside move here on oil
VS Reality
Miss: Entry $72.61 → Exit $68.03 · P/L -6.3% · vs SPY -24.2%
ARK Invest · 2024-01-06
📈 Mid #Macro / FX / Rates
Miss
MACRO:US10Y SHORT
we do believe that uh that interest rates are the long-term interest rates are going to continue down this year and that they could they could hit 2%
VS Reality
Miss: Entry $4.04 → Exit $4.57 · P/L -13.1% · vs SPY -40.0% · Target $2.00
Gareth Soloway · 2026-02-23
⚡ Short #Macro / FX / Rates
Miss
MACRO:SILVER LONG
silver in the near term, the micro pattern is likely going to go and retest this level up here. But the thing is... you still have to get through this massive …
VS Reality
Miss: Entry $86.52 → Exit $84.03 · P/L -2.9% · vs SPY -2.3% · Target $91.00

🎯 Spot-On Calls

Sorted by realized gain. Up to 3 per pundit.

Gareth Soloway · 2026-04-23
📈 Mid #Macro / FX / Rates
Hit
USO LONG
short-term bullish on oil, but only up to about 103, 104.
VS Reality
Bullseye: P/L +4683.0% · vs SPY +4264.0% · Target $104.00
🌳 Long #Macro / FX / Rates
Hit
INDEX:TNX LONG
the 10-year yield will start to move higher. And it doesn't need to move higher by much. Just a little move higher will serve as a leading indicator that the m…
VS Reality
Bullseye: Entry $1.54 → Exit $3.88 · P/L +151.4% · vs SPY +170.0%
Aswath Damodaran · 2022-01-01
🌳 Long #Macro / FX / Rates
Hit
^TNX LONG
t bond rate can increase in fact in the
VS Reality
Bullseye: Entry $1.51 → Exit $3.79 · P/L +150.9% · vs SPY +169.4%
IBD Live · 2023-10-03
🌳 Long #Macro / FX / Rates
Hit
^TNX SHORT
we we've the the Relentless rise has to stop
VS Reality
Bullseye: Entry $4.80 → Exit $3.85 · P/L +19.8% · vs SPY -16.7%
ARK Invest · 2023-10-07
🌳 Long #Macro / FX / Rates
Hit
MACRO:US10Y SHORT
many people are making the point that that the 40-year bull market in bonds is over um we don't think that's the case
VS Reality
Bullseye: Entry $4.78 → Exit $4.03 · P/L +15.8% · vs SPY -18.1%
TheChartGuys · 2025-09-20
⚡ Short #Macro / FX / Rates
Hit
SLV LONG
Silver already got the bull flag confirming right off EMA2. Very strong and healthy.
VS Reality
Bullseye: Entry $39.04 → Exit $43.52 · P/L +11.5% · vs SPY +10.6%
Gareth Soloway · 2026-01-05
📈 Mid #Macro / FX / Rates
Hit
MACRO:WTI LONG
this could be the play, the commodity play of 2026, at least for the first half, could be the best performer out there.
VS Reality
Bullseye: P/L +1917.0% · vs SPY +1058.0%
🌳 Long #Macro / FX / Rates
Hit
DX-Y.NYB LONG
short squeeze in the United States dollar, causing the dollar index to shoot significantly higher. That will poke a massive hole in the market rally
VS Reality
Bullseye: Entry $89.94 → Exit $95.67 · P/L +6.4% · vs SPY -22.4%
TheChartGuys · 2025-09-20
⚡ Short #Macro / FX / Rates
Hit
GLD LONG
Gold really strong daily higher low. Well, not really strong, just a standard healthy daily higher low.
VS Reality
Bullseye: Entry $339.18 → Exit $357.64 · P/L +5.4% · vs SPY +4.6%
Gareth Soloway · 2025-12-09
📈 Mid #Macro / FX / Rates
Hit
MACRO:SILVER LONG
right now, this is the most likely outcome with an upside target of $61 to $62 per ounce.
VS Reality
Bullseye: Entry $60.17 → Exit $84.03 · P/L +39.7% · vs SPY +40.1% · Target $61.50
^TNX LONG
now we're eyeing three and a half that could be a psychological number where we see buying of bonds
VS Reality
Bullseye: Entry $3.37 → Exit $3.42 · P/L +1.7% · vs SPY -3.6% · Target $3.50

🔮 Pending Verdicts

Bold calls whose horizon hasn't expired yet. Bullseye or miss?

Gareth Soloway · 2026-04-16
📈 Mid #Macro / FX / Rates
Pending
GBPUSD=X LONG
How about GBP USD? Look at this. Same thing. Wow, look at the breakout. I mean, this is probably going all the way up to 170 per dollar here
VS Reality
Horizon: 2026-10-13 · 44 days remaining
Benjamin Cowen · 2025-10-20
🌳 Long #Macro / FX / Rates
Pending
MACRO:PALLADIUM LONG
I think we'll see palladium continue its bull market and I think there likely will be a drop that'll that'll it'll spook some people but it should be construct…
VS Reality
Horizon: 2026-10-20 · 51 days remaining
ZipTrader · 2026-02-02
📈 Mid #Macro / FX / Rates
Pending
MACRO:SILVER LONG
it's going to set some people up for massive gains later on this year.
VS Reality
Horizon: 2026-12-31 · 123 days remaining
ARK Invest · 2026-01-14
🌳 Long #Macro / FX / Rates
Pending
UUP LONG
I actually think that's going to happen again if we get the the this Fed controversy behind us because the Trump policies are Reagan's policies and some of the…
VS Reality
Horizon: 2027-01-14 · 137 days remaining
Gareth Soloway · 2026-04-16
📈 Mid #Macro / FX / Rates
Pending
DX-Y.NYB SHORT
the dollar coming up... we have a bearish pattern... you're now talking about the dollar declining... This would be a 10% decline in the value of the dollar
VS Reality
Horizon: 2026-10-13 · 44 days remaining
ZipTrader · 2026-02-02
📈 Mid #Macro / FX / Rates
Pending
MACRO:GOLD LONG
it's going to set some people up for massive gains later on this year.
VS Reality
Horizon: 2026-12-31 · 123 days remaining
Benjamin Cowen · 2026-01-27
🌳 Long #Macro / FX / Rates
Pending
MACRO:GOLD LONG
20% would put gold right above $6,000, which is exactly where I said the target was five or six years ago. $6,000. Um, I think it can ultimately go beyond that…
VS Reality
Horizon: 2027-01-27 · 150 days remaining
Gareth Soloway · 2026-01-18
📈 Mid #Macro / FX / Rates
Pending
US10Y LONG
My upside target remains 4.5% on the charts here.
VS Reality
Horizon: 2026-10-18 · 49 days remaining
ZipTrader · 2026-01-05
🌳 Long #Macro / FX / Rates
Pending
GLD LONG
We're going to talk about why silver and gold prices are skyrocketing and why their suppression is reversing. And even though the volatility of the last couple…
VS Reality
Horizon: 2027-01-05 · 128 days remaining
Benjamin Cowen · 2026-08-17
🌳 Long #Macro / FX / Rates
Pending
^TNX LONG
the 10 year yield is likely going to head higher it's already back up to 4.7 i think it's going to head up to about five percent
VS Reality
Horizon: 2027-08-17 · 352 days remaining