Benjamin Cowen

in 2018, XRP dropped about 80% and then 2022 it dropped about 60%. So it probably makes sense to assume that it will drop in the year of 2026

Long-term, I think uranium looks constructively bullish. Like, if you look at the technical analysis, like it looks bullish. You have higher highs and higher lows... I think long-term uh it's it's fu…

hopeful that it will break through $500 and I think in a perfect scenario might even go up to $600... 500 600 is in the cards, but I don't think 1500 is. 1500 will be eventually in my opinion, just n…

山寨币的牛市不会结束的，宏观经济不允许它继续

is that altcoins have actually been an inferior investment than gold for the last five years now we can live in the past and see like well what about what happened in 2017 and 23 we can do that if yo…

my guess is that we will revisit those levels in 2026

the late 2024 lows would be I guess considered the lower bound on this by let's call it the summer of 2026

I'd be looking for a low for the asset class sometime later this year. Let's see if this lower regression band comes into play

My guess is he's not going to be able to cut rates anytime soon unless there's something that breaks that we're not seeing right now. But it looks like rates are probably going to hold steady through…

I think that USDT dominance plus USDC dominance, my guess is that within a few months, it'll be a lot higher than it is right now

stablecoin dominance, after breaking after sweeping these prior highs, would get a pullback, and then explode higher to around 12-13% or so, and then we talked about, you know, how it would sort of s…

the wall of worry so the stock market right now is is still following the s&p m2 fractal by the way as crazy as that sounds and actually in february that was one of the reasons i you know i i mention…

I think that the high is either in or we sweep the high and then we drop. Like I think one of those two outcomes is the most likely

Silver tops. It will likely be a 30 to 50% drop

the pullback will likely take place over a couple of months, but then it should be a higher low to then lead into a higher high, right?

I'm still a macro bull on gold long term

I think that trend's going to continue uh for probably 7 more years if I had to guess. And I am guessing

I would say maybe about a 60 to 65% chance in my view that gold could actually hit a new all-time high

Right? I mean, the reality and and and and and here's the thing. I'm not going to you know, I'm I'm not here to you know, to just tell you that every you know, the asset that I'm that I'm talking abo…

I still remain of the opinion that we will eventually go higher, probably into like the end of the decade going into the 2030s

If silver does go to a new all-time high this year, it's probably only after gold does. Right? I think gold would have to lead the way. So, that's why I think that for the next 12 to 18 months, like …

I will suggest that there will be a 20 to 30% correction from the gold top high to the gold low in 2026, but it should form a macro higher low and ultimately go higher

there is a 98% chance the Fed holds rates constant in late April... still over a 90% chance the Fed does not lower rates until October of this year

I think it's going to make sense for ETH Bitcoin to go higher than where it is now. But I also think that in order for ETH to rally to say like 0.053, 053, which is where I think it might eventually …

I think there's a good chance Ethereum will drop back into this logarithmic aggression trend line at some point in 2026... If it doesn't happen in the next month or two, then my guess is that it won'…

base case for me is Ethereum spends some time in the regression band throughout 2026... 2100 on Ethereum is is a number that I think will print in 2026

When that double bottom occurs, I'll give you the three most likely times. I would say one option, December 2026. I like that the most. If it's not then, I would say September 2026. If it's not then,…

I would certainly argue there's a a higher chance that the Dow has a 20% correction before ever setting its sights on 100,000

the june 2025 high for bitcoin dominance sometime in the next few years and the point of that is to say if the ultimate direction for bitcoin dominance including and excluding stables is up what's th…

Regardless of what happens with Bitcoin in the short term in March, my guess is that it will then prove to be a lower high and then we'll get more weakness going into April and May

What I think will likely be back to 60k. Um but, I would say the timing on it will likely be within a couple of weeks or so, right? Like, within a couple of weeks, probably by the end of the month or…

for me, it's hard to fade the idea of us simply just putting in a lower high in March. That would be standing with what I previously said, that Bitcoin would rally into March, and and it would likely…

strength into early March, sell-off into April

the window of weakness is open for Bitcoin. Now, what do I mean by that? Now, in general, mid-term years are already weak for Bitcoin

But it will likely break down. That's my guess. My guess is that this will eventually break down within the next couple of months

Sweet rally, drop into the summer, and then try to consolidate there... October 2026 has a lot of reasons for why it could in fact be the low

I've said that October is my base case, but I I wouldn't completely dismiss the idea of a low earlier, even as early as May... Um but we'll take that one step at a time

suggest that later this year is a more likely low than the february low now we're gonna get extra dubious now okay extra dubious again i'm not trading this stuff what i wanted to offload i offloaded …

Now, that'll likely come a little bit later, potentially as early as May. A reasonable expectation could also be October, based on the cyclical nature of Bitcoin and how often it tends to find lows a…

My expectation is that Bitcoin tests the 200E moving average before this year is over. That's my guess. And the reason I say it is because it's what always happens in the midterm years... I would say…

I would say there's probably a 60 to 70% chance that the top is already in. Okay, about a 60 to 70%... 50% drop back to the 200E moving average around 60 to 70K

I think the market will go lower as the year goes on and I I think that it's easy to label anyone that's bearish just to not write doomer

bitcoin and we're going to be discussing looking at the market with bear goggles on if you guys like the content make sure you subscribe to the channel give the video a thumbs up and also check out t…

What I would say is to expect a macro lower high by Bitcoin um sometime in the first quarter of this year that will then lend itself to a slightly lower low by the summer of 2026. That is my guess

I I do think October is the most likely time for a low, but that is subject to change

the 2019 drop is just the 2026 drop. So, the four-year cycle remains intact, but for a different reason, right? Instead of topping on euphoria, we topped on apathy

I I still lean more bearish than bullish going into the summer of 2026

on average, right? On average, the next few months will likely be weak with a couple of countertrend rallies

later this year we should hopefully find a more durable low in the market. There is a chance you could have a low earlier depending on how drop how deep the next drop is

I've kind of set a price target of approximately 60 to 70k by the summer... the 200-week SMA is always in play in midterm years, and you can see that's going to be coming up right to that 60 to 70k m…

until later this year bitcoin is sort of forced to decide you know which way it's actually going to break um and this is a long process right this doesn you know i wish we could sort of speed this al…

I think there's there's chance energy will likely go higher.

Will gold outperform Bitcoin this year? I mean it already has been. My my guess is that it will continue to.

Middle East are causing energy prices to go higher, which will cause inflation to go up in the short term.

I would lean towards bear market. I I would lean towards bear market. I I would lean towards Bitcoin going lower as the year goes on

the S&P will likely get a rally back up to the bull market support band, and that'll take a month or two, and then it'll then get rejected and go down

it seems likely that we're going to have a bit of a correction here in the in the next few weeks.

yeah, I mean Bitcoin probably bleeds to energy.

my argument here is that Bitcoin will likely drop another call it 30% against gold this year.

Bitcoin seems to be allergic to that early week in March where it'll go up and then it'll form a lower high and then go back down.

I think the tensions are only going to go up. Unfortunately, it will likely eventually lead to a larger drop in the stock market

I actually think metals will still do well into the end of the decade.

I do think there will be a sharp correction um in them sometime in 2026 that lasts more than just like a month or two. It might last like 6 to 18 months or something.

I think the most likely outcome is a lower high whenever the rally happens.

We're likely going to be going into sort of a a blowoff, a short-term blowoff top in early 2026, pull back, consolidate, and then go higher into the end of the decade.

A 15% drop for Ethereum would already put it at like 2500, but I'm expecting ETH Bitcoin to drop for the next week or so. So, that could actually be a deeper drop for Ethereum. Uh maybe closer to 20 …

I think ETH is going to struggle against Bitcoin. I think it might find a macro higher low within the next couple of weeks or so.

maybe Bitcoin revisits 100K and then that marks the macro lower high as we've seen before.

But you could also go to 74K before the rally to 100K occurs

there likely will be a counter trend rally by Bitcoin in early 2026 at some point.

long term, like really long term, I fully expect Palladium, you know, to get back up to these levels.

I still think Palladium's bull market will continue.

I could see a bounce coming in early 2026, uh potentially back up to the 200-day moving average and or the 50-week moving average.

I think Bitcoin will likely stay weak for this week, and then I could see some type of local low forming uh you know, later December maybe early January

I think we could see those macro headwinds become tailwinds, but I think it's going to take until mid to late 2026 for that to happen.

the next step is likely going to that 200-week moving average, my guess, sometime before the summer is over, the summer of 2026.

There are absolutely there will be some cryptocurrencies that probably go to new all-time highs, but I don't think Bitcoin is going to be one of them.

I do think Bitcoin, you know, will have a relief rally at some point in the next couple of months or so.

you could have a scenario where Bitcoin does something like this and it kind of drops down to 60 to 70K by the summer

Base case for me for metals, as I've said before, is I think they stay strong into early 2026, and then you're going to see a larger drop.

I'm still long-term bullish on silver.

I still think you're going to see continued strength into early 2026 and then some weakness from most of 2026

I've said many times like you will likely have a rally back up to the 200-day moving average. I I think that will happen.

Now unfortunately, I think 2026 will be red

I do think there's a decent chance that ETH will bottom against Bitcoin, put in a higher low in the month of December.

I would assume that a future rally will likely fail around the 200 day moving average

it historically has meant that the cycle is over and that we are likely going to go to the 200E moving average.

MicroStrategy will likely have a bounce at some point. But, my guess is that this cycle is over for MicroStrategy

what if the the cycle the bear market is just from October to October? I think that's a completely viable path for Bitcoin.

65,000 is probably where that 200-week moving average is going to be by mid-next year, if I had to guess.

you could see Micro Strategy dropping into early 2026.

think what makes the most amount of sense to me is with an October high, you would expect an October 2026 low.

I do think that Bitcoin will have its date with destiny at the 200E moving average in 2026. And my guess is that date with destiny will be somewhere between 60 and 70K

even if we do get another rally this cycle, it's still probably going to happen in the next bear market where we go below 100k

I would argue that Bitcoin will find itself back at the 200E moving average in 2026

between November 10th and November 12th, perhaps that's when the death cross will occur. And so, that'll be the best chance for Bitcoin to try to rally out of the slump that it's in

my base case remains that Ethereum will bounce around the bull market support ban. And you know, I don't know what narrative is going to support it...that it ultimately finds support and then bounces…

before we usher in the bare market in 2026

I would assume that next year will in fact be a bare market for Bitcoin and the top would then likely occur sometime in the current quarter

I think it makes sense to expect that there will be a bare market in 2026

I think the top is in the fourth quarter of the post having year. It sets up a bare market next year

You should see a pullback by silver sometime in the next few months that's going to take it back below the prior all-time highs

I think it's going to be a higher low and then you should think see silver go higher into the decade

either way Bitcoin is a better play for now until we either get weekly closes below the 50-week SMA or we get new all-time highs. Majority portfolio Bitcoin is in fact the way to go.

now that Ethereum has dropped 30% and hit the bull market support band, I think it will now rally to all-time highs

I think liquidity will flow back to the king once again. The final rotation's already underway

realistically speaking, there's a good chance that silver will will sweep that all-time high relatively soon

I'm not saying palladium has to get rejected at 1,600 and ultimately I think it will go higher

One of the things I've said is that gold will likely get some type of a pullback after silver breaks the all-time high

What I think's going to happen is it'll chop for a while. It'll then break through, go into the market cycle top, and then we'll get the 2026 bare market.

I think the way to think about this is the most likely outcome is topping in Q4

silver sweeps this high

cycle top will just occur in the fourth

correction by gold will

rally into a market cycle top

the dollar to find this low

pullback for the S&P um late September,

ETH will likely drop back in here to

silver rallying to an all-time high

remain bullish on gold through the end

pullback in 2026

going up. Look for it to maybe

think the the local high in August is in

a cycle top sometime in the fourth

Bitcoin will find uh its 20week moving average

to 30% drop for Ethereum and probably

Bitcoin will have a drop in September. I think it's going to try to hold on until September before dropping to the 20week moving average

I think Ethereum will print new all-time highs

you get some type of market cycle top sometime in Q4

arguably we're like, you know, getting pretty close to the final rally that might occur sometime in the second half of this year if history is any indication

we'll likely have a our normal midterm year bare market. We had one in 2014 and 2018 and 2022. I'm going to guess we'll probably have another one in 2026

my bias now is that it will make new all-time highs and I'm going to say no later than December

uh a price of Ethereum potentially uh of 5,300 to as high as 7,500. So, I say that again. 5,300 to 7,500

Ethereum will have a market cycle top no later than January of 2026

I've been very adamant that I I think the 10-year yield is likely heading back up here uh to 5%

my base case for Ethereum is that I I think it will break through 4K uh within the next few months

I think that ETH has bottomed against Bitcoin. So, if I'm right about that, which is a big F, I think it's bottomed for this cycle

I do think there's a compelling case to be made that the altcoins are just simply going to be devalued against Bitcoin back to the range low I don't think this time's going to be any different

for things like eth that stuff that generally is going to come later in the cycle after a Fed pivot after QE up until that point the general expectation is that eth will bleed to bitcoin

getting another push higher as the having actually approaches and then getting a larger dump after the having

regardless of whether it's a translated Peak or not it there's certainly a good chance that you get a top in April which is when I think all Bitcoin pairs break down

I think that dominance of Bitcoin will be going to 56% either in April or May I that is I I feel very strong conviction

I do think that we could be looking at at 56% dominance within the next few weeks

higher for longer got priced in I think TLT potentially bottomed here at around 82 um that is something that at least in the short term I I think is right

do Bitcoin dominance continues to climb higher and I'm guessing we'll continue this trend probably through the end of the year at the very least and and could extend even into next year

you're probably better off buying Bitcoin over Ada in the prehab year

the post having year will be 2025 and that's where long-term holders tend to sell the most because that's usually when Bitcoin is hitting is hitting those all-time highs

regardless of what Bitcoin does the Bitcoin dominance should just slowly cont you know just continue to slowly Trend higher regardless

if we hit it when we normally hit it um in Q4 of the post having year it would correspond to just over 100k

I do expect the dominance to continue up through the end of the year

altcoin market will bleed in the prehab year and that's why the Bitcoin dominance should continue to go higher

I think it's much more likely that ethereum eventually makes its way down to that 003 to 004 range meaning it goes below 04 okay below 04 which from this level it would mean ethereum dropping another…

I think that we will see it much higher by the end of the year

if Bitcoin were to go down for the second half of the year which is my base case

I do think eth will underperform Bitcoin I do think the USD evaluation of eth will likely get hit pretty hard um later on as we get further into the year and before the having just like it did last c…

I would argue that within a year we will see the dominance at 60

in Q3 of the prehabbing year you typically get a pretty substantial correction ranging from like 48 49 all the way up to around 80 percent

we often see a correction in August or September by the S P 500 a five to ten percent correction

oftentimes in the prehabbing year Bitcoin Falls below its bull market support band in that August or September time frame

the ethereum Bitcoin valuation is in a systematic bleed likely to last uh for you know potentially through September but also it could last it could go till December

if Bitcoin holds a line ether Bitcoin likely goes down if Bitcoin does not hold the line ether Bitcoin likely goes down

I do think that the dominance goes up either way

mostly just because I still think that Bitcoin is going to outperform them whether Bitcoin goes up or down and and and Bitcoin chopping up here is a great way to send those altcoins down on their Bit…

I still do think that it is more likely than not that eventually it's going to go into this lower regression band whether that means we go to it or it comes to us of course is up for interpretation I…

we'll break above it at some point I mean I imagine at some point right in 2023 in fact we will likely break above the the this resistance band right at some point this year I think we'll break above…