#Bonds / Rates · Pundit Scoreboard · Stock calls
34 calls
17 decided
2 hits
13 partial
2 misses
16 pending
🏆 The Scoreboard
⚡ Short <60 days
📈 Mid 60-360 days
🌳 Long >360 days
💡 Three time horizons: Short <60d · Mid 60-360d · Long >360d
💰 Avg P/L = equal-weight blind-follower model — average return per decided call
💸 Spectacular Misses
Sorted by loss magnitude. Up to 3 cards per pundit.
BND SHORT
we probably might see higher interest rates which means that bonds will go lower for another six months year two years
VS Reality
Miss: Entry $62.47 → Exit $67.45 · P/L -8.0% · vs SPY -19.1%
UUP LONG
these buyers should be trying to make their way back up to this local supply the low at uh 102.38830.
VS Reality
Miss: Entry $26.78 → Exit $26.36 · P/L -1.6% · vs SPY -1.2% · Target $102.39
🎯 Spot-On Calls
Sorted by realized gain. Up to 3 per pundit.
TLT SHORT
the first
thing you have to do is not to be a
long-term debt owner because those are
the suckers
VS Reality
Bullseye: Entry $99.47 → Exit $85.48 · P/L +14.1% · vs SPY -85.9%
TLT LONG
I would rather be positioned to benefit from it by being a little long some of these uh uh uh treasury bonds
VS Reality
Bullseye: Entry $83.15 → Exit $94.26 · P/L +13.4% · vs SPY -14.9%
🔮 Pending Verdicts
Bold calls whose horizon hasn't expired yet. Bullseye or miss?
TLT SHORT
it almost feels like Treasuries are trying to break through on the 10-year, not only this long-term resistance we've had, but if they do, we might be breaking …
VS Reality
Horizon: 2026-08-08 · 65 days remaining
UUP LONG
the dollar to find this low
VS Reality
Horizon: 2026-09-19 · 107 days remaining
UUP SHORT
Warsh has been outspoken about his agenda. He wants the Fed to cut rates by at least 100 basis points over the next 12 months. He also says he wants to push re…
VS Reality
Horizon: 2026-11-03 · 152 days remaining
TLT LONG
I think treasuries are just the beginning. I mean there's only $8 billion of tokenized treasuries and this $200 billion of tokenized dollars. That makes no sen…
VS Reality
Horizon: 2026-12-18 · 197 days remaining
TLT SHORT
5% for 20 30year treasuries is still ridiculously cheap. The 20 30year Treasury when inflation hits will be 7 8%. This is ridiculous on the expectations that t…
VS Reality
Horizon: 2030-05-23 · 1449 days remaining
TLT LONG
I sort of circled how we've broken through these on the 10-year and the 30-year in the past. So it has happened before and we tend to retrace. So I don't think…
VS Reality
Horizon: 2026-08-16 · 73 days remaining
TLT SHORT
avoid longduration bonds. If you're stuck in Treasury bonds, basically lending money to the government at 3 to 4% and real inflation is actually like 8 to 10%.…
VS Reality
Horizon: 2027-01-05 · 215 days remaining
TLT LONG
in the meantime, I do think rates will come down because uh the unemployment rate will continue up... I do think that the combination of inflation coming down …
VS Reality
Horizon: 2027-01-14 · 224 days remaining
TLT SHORT
My guess is he's not going to be able to cut rates anytime soon unless there's something that breaks that we're not seeing right now. But it looks like rates a…
VS Reality
Horizon: 2027-05-23 · 353 days remaining
TLT SHORT
now bonds are trash and are in a bubble cash is even trashier for that matter and we are going to cover this because it will have a huge impact on how the fina…
VS Reality
Horizon: 2031-03-20 · 1750 days remaining
TLT SHORT
when it comes down to US dollars and when it comes to US debt, very very different picture. That's going going much much worse.
VS Reality
Horizon: 2027-02-22 · 263 days remaining
TLT LONG
this suggests to us that these long-term interest rates are going to drop fairly significantly as we enter a harder than expected landing and that they could d…
VS Reality
Horizon: 2027-05-22 · 352 days remaining
TLT LONG
I believe we are going to return to the cycle of the great moderation where interest rates decline probably starting in 2032 and then we have another 40 years …
VS Reality
Horizon: 2032-12-31 · 2402 days remaining