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we believe or zoom's uh revenue growth is going to accelerate from there... zoom it's revenue sorry is up six and a half fold uh since the beginning of the coronavirus

we expect the opposite we expect oil prices to continue falling

this suggests to us that these long-term interest rates are going to drop fairly significantly as we enter a harder than expected landing and that they could drop below 2% we're not saying that they …

we think that's going to become much more commoditized and that Ai and the large language models uh are akin to that but but because so many so much capital is chasing this opportunity unlike the clo…

if we apply that to AI a hundred trillion dollars in value creation means software companies should be able to capture between 10 and 25 trillion dollars a year in Revenue in our base case we assume …

Tesla will keep lowering prices to below gas powered vehicles it's just going to be very very difficult [for Ford/GM]... its margins are much higher than Fords and higher than GMS even after these pr…

well now we are going to hear news and we think it's going to be uh good news and we'll start to see it translate into revenues for these companies this is not five years from now uh in the case of c…

Now, SpaceX obviously which will both go public like probably in the next month or probably in the next weeks... the market was priced initially at 150 bucks, which was what 1.7 trillion, which is, y…

right now, really like Hyperliquid probably has like 80% market share. So, I think... what's interesting, I think more so for now is Hyperliquid taking a share of the centralized venues... Coinbase n…

broadly speaking, we think this is a $26 trillion opportunity, split roughly equally between uh manufacturing and household robotics... humanoid robot could add 100% productivity uplift. And as a tak…

when the tokenized assets become available to crypto uh investors worldwide uh even gold know people trade it and also because of the geopolitical tension right so there's a lot of volatility I think…

President Trump is going to... views the stock market as his benchmark, right? He's going to do everything in his power to improve the stock market. When the stock markets does well, crypto will do w…

this new technology will lower the fees and lower the costs. Uh so you will lower their profits in the short term but it will also increase their volume... if you lower the fees by 50% you want to ha…

Absolutely. Absolutely. I think AI will help on multiple fronts. Number one is AI agents going to transact 10 a thousand times more transactions than humans can do... and AI is going to use crypto...…

I'm still very hopeful that uh this year might turn out different that well this recovery might be slightly faster than the historic uh bare market recoveries... So I think we're probably I'm hoping …

I think the stock market doing well will be very positive for Bitcoin and for crypto in general. So I think that force will probably come very strong before the midterm because you know before the mi…

you're very correct about the institutions... when they get in, they don't get out like you know within a month... They will hold for multiple years... with them coming into the ETFs. Um that's reall…

the level of demand is still shocking every week I am more and more shocked at how supply constrained we are throughout this whole cycle... I think it's small compared to where it will be in three ye…

Micro Strategy remains a concentrated holder of Bitcoin and they complexified their capital structure in a way that I I call it looms out there. Maybe it didn't happen this cycle. One cycle will end …

the market is skeptical of all these layers to a varying degree and is slowly getting kind of pulled into believing in at least the two-year demand story at each layer... I'm gonna actually call I th…

our house view which I think is right is that actually returns yes returns on on selling this ... compute power to other companies is clearly like a great business... but there's an even better busin…

if at a certain point, in 2 years' time, the infrastructure buildout is going to be slower than what you need to keep pace with the model buildout.

I think in 2 years there's like a much more acute pain of what it means to be compute constrained. And that is a very different landscape than what we're in today.

Open AI is now probably best in class in terms of a... enterprise and consumer facing both model and application but uh I suspect that Anthropic will continue to... knock the doors off in terms of sa…

AI like search is not going to be the lucrative honeypot that it was before. It's all going to move through AI... I do think it's a sign of the direction of things to come.

there's going to be a natural kind of share allocation across the companies based on the amount of underlying compute infrastructure they have access to... SpaceX um make sense cuz they're just like …

the company clearly knows it needs to change... if you are John Ternus stepping into this role, you have one job. And that's to just deeply integrate AI into all of the hardware that you've been buil…

They've gone they are definitely going from generating 20 billion dollars per year or so in... providing Google default search to paying Google some billions per year for their AI... I think they sti…

would you wager that Apple's AI experience is as compelling as Google's integrated with its hardware a year from now or two years from now? How how far behind do you think Apple will be relative to G…

The problem is they don't own or control the performant AI sufficient to deeply integrate it. And they've underinvested, I would argue, in a catastrophic way in developing or acquiring the AI talent.

I believe Apple's finally about to start cooking with AI.

Now at you know, some threshold level they will and probably packaged into hardware they'll be happy to do that. And with all those preconditions in place, I just don't trust that Apple is going to b…

at the edges things are eroding... there could be like a proton torpedo headed straight to their exhaust port uh and we're just going to like wake up one day to a product launch and be like... am I g…

I think there's plenty of evidence that... their ability to select and curate consumer experiences is degraded. Two, they've clearly poisoned their relationship with the developer community... That j…

Um and on the other hand, we also think that part of that ultimate 28 trillion target uh is going to come out of the market cap capitalization of the smart contract cohort led by Ethereum and Solana.…

basically, what you see here is a target of about roughly 28 trillion by the end of 2030 across both cryptocurrency and smart contracts... market cap total estimate for cryptocurrencies on monetary b…

I think what we're going to see is... if you're going to be spending more in AI, you're going to be spending less on some of these other services because they don't want to damage their their profits…

Elon is thinking way ahead... it would be surprising to me if he was the only party that would come to this realization. In short, an AI purposed foundry industry looks different from TSMC's foundry …

the amount that we will need to invest into the underlying compute stack just almost demands that we're going to re-engineer how it works... with the exception of Elon, who is clearly making very big…

You you can now think of AI as the primary driving force economically for the semiconductor industry, and yet economically the prices of tools and the formats of fabs and everything relates back to t…

I imagine I agree with your thesis, which I do. It's like you're going to have this huge explosion in the amount that we are demanding of output from this set of industry, and therefore you need to r…

we're seeing more growth in casual AI experiences and and gaming and... one of the areas where I think there could be a lot of growth is bringing AI not necessarily to your phone or PC, but to a smar…

I don't think there's that much differentiation in being able to empower humanoid or whatever form factor robots with the dexterity and the animation of a scientist working in the lab. I'm I'm bearis…

it is clear I think uh our a core I think perspective on the cycle that we have and and actually carries through the really the 2030 forecast period at least is that the world is compute starved... b…

we want to scale that paradigm again goes back to IBM PC of just like CPU plus DRAM. We want to scale that to an industry we're going to spend trillions of dollars on

my assessment of the current state of capital markets, even looking at how people underwrite Nvidia... the implication that a couple years from now, look out below. Like this is the end of it. And I …

AI changes more than the need for more compute. It it doesn't just like create a new tier of demand which you could say is it dwarfs what we have experienced through the PC era, the mobile era, the I…

I think the the amount that we spend on tokens as uh world GDP, right? This is the lowest it's lowest it will be. Tomorrow will be higher, the day after will be higher. There'll never be another day …

I think kind of our call it house view, but I think it's valid is you know, the world as a whole is massively heavily under software'd... the actual expansion of total amount of spend on you know, ca…

I think this year I'm definitely going to lead a deal in this material science for AI... To give a hint, I think it's going to come down to specific verticals in material science that are connected t…

now people in the comment comment are going to go, 'Yeah, me too. Me too. I I've noticed the same thing.' And then Tesla's going to fix it and boom, it's going to scale.

it's so early that there's the possibility that like xAI, which Grok model is not being used as much and certainly not monetizing as well, could um very much catch up and surpass these others and we'…

they will have to um do basically like pilot scale deployments and then scale from there... charging infrastructure in Phoenix specific to robo-taxi, which is a strong sign that they're going to try …

Yeah, I agree. I think it accelerates and then comes back down as two out of three businesses we start fail, right? Because I've I've out marketed you and bought more GPUs and bots... It's not into l…

even on Claude today, they haven't really uh come to terms with the fact that this is that we're still on this pathway of these things are going to get better by like probably a similar amount, maybe…

I actually think advertising explodes in the next 5 to 10 years... you get companies that are smaller and smaller and you have performance parity with feature sets and you can basically copy another …

on our like rough modeling, there's going to be call it a um I think it's like a almost 20x increase in the number of ad impressions effectively... the average ad impression uh the cost of the averag…

as a great platform, you reconfigure your algorithm, right? Like why do you think Meta is going to surpass Alphabet in advertising dollars? It's because their algorithms are better, because people ar…

an interpretation of the way the market is moving which is kind of these frontier models on the enterprise side are going to be competitive at least on a benchmark basis and so then kind of the...sha…

Distribution. Distribution, distribution. I mean, I think Meta, to your point, right, they don't have to serve compute others. They don't have a cloud business they need to stand up. So the opportuni…

I think distribution matters. I think it will...if you have the distribution, if you can maintain that, you can then go out and copy whatever the best product and solution is until there is true lock…

if you think about product versus compute, I think product ultimately wins because assuming that you can get the compute to build the back end model or get access to the capability that the model pro…

Open AI is actually much better positioned in terms of medium-term access to compute supply and is investing a lot more money this year...Anthropic came out with mythos Open AI's...model is...going t…

I think Apple can...get back in the race and I I don't think until you have lock in value you you you can say who has won or no.

We believe these trends will accelerate software spend growth to between 19% and 56% depending on how aggressively enterprises adopt AI. At the midpoint, this would imply roughly similar levels of so…

Uber has a very important role to play... Waymo's issue is they either have to massively overprovision the network to meet peak demand or I can't rely on Waymo... they are doomed to be an incomplete …

We think the size of the market... goes up by and really more than an order of magnitude as you go from $3 to1 per mile... I think Uber's strategy is a good one so long as the market remains supply c…

the only credible alternative to that is Tesla's strategy, which is you have consumer-owned vehicles... at some point in the future they'll be able to like flash up on my phone, hey, do you want your…

I think the rate at which companies can grow is going to... be the big surprise for people who choose to stay on the sideline... Here it's like we know there is demand for this or we're fairly confid…

what's the rate of change on improvement? And it's like, I think it's fair to say SpaceX is continuing to accelerate and so their lead is only growing.

with SpaceX in particular, it's going to be a question of... can they make a reusable rocket?... how long will they be able to... reinvesting in more satellites before somebody catches up? And the di…

I think in our modeling Sam it's between a hundred and $200 billion in revenue they could get off of that opportunity. it would be extraordinarily profitable for them... Once they shift over to Stars…

to address AI compute it's actually a much larger opportunity than that. You know it could be 60x more upmass required for AI compute... they've publicly announced... a million satellites... whereas …

that $7 trillion doesn't all go to open AI or XAI... it flows into... specific AI software products... and platform as a service providers like Palunteer... there's around $2 trillion that accrves to…

open AAI at $800 billion going after a you know $20 trillion opportunity... even if it gets chopped into three pieces then... that's 7 trillion... management expectations for revenue... 250 billion i…

OpenAI has on the order of 900 million weekly activives growing quite rapidly. Um the entire space is probably heading into the four five billion weekly activives in the 2030ish time frame... the ent…

Not that it's wrong and not that I think it's go like going to fail... do I think they get there? Yes, absolutely... We think that by 2030 globally around $9 trillion will flow through agents... it'l…

the demand curve for AI compute we think extends out beyond any reasonable horizon but that's yet to be proven.

that is a real opportunity. We think that that's probably a 6 to700 billion opportunity by 2030. If you look at the global advertising uh market and then assume AI as a percent of advertising... in o…

you can think of XAI, OpenAI, Gemini, and Enthropic all as competing for a I think of it as a 15 to 20 trillion dollar kind of foundation model PI on an enterprise value basis... on the basis of by 2…

Gemini is like probably the realest competition they have on the consumer side just again because... they can just continue to subsidize this long into the future um and put real pricing pressure on …

I'm less concerned about the subsidization side and more that Google has both the wherewithal and the capability to more directly integrate everything it's doing with the other consumer pieces they h…

I think Anthropic is a real deal competitor, as is XAI, as is Gemini... it's not a winner take all... you're going to have like a handful of competitors that can all generate cash flows that can all …

robo-taxis could generate uh, around 34 trillion dollars of enterprise value in 2030. Um, we've said this in the past, I'll I'll repeat it again here, that uh, we think that the the majority of the e…

Basically, Elon always looks forward a few years at the choke point that he anticipates um impinging upon his strategic plans. And um access to chips is his anticipated choke point... it can also ser…

they're going to have pressure from megacap tech to build to provide them competitive weapons to use against the the Elon conglomerate where Tesla, SpaceX, and XAI combined... will have access to an …

he is his view is you'll have like on the order of Optimus's sold a year equal to humans divided by five or divide by 10... every human gets an Optimus and you have it you replace every five or 10 ye…

it's like a true mass luxury product right now even at its current capability level and it keeps getting better... people say they tried and they're like oh it was pretty good and it's like no but ha…

it's like give them some time... until you cross this commercialization threshold, it's going to look sub scale scale and then suddenly it's going to be massively in excess of scale of Waymo. Um that…

AI compute in space seems like the best exploitation of that option value... the reason AI compute in space is actually marginally less IRR attractive... the difference is it can continue scaling whe…

we have demand a demand curve that looks like it extends not to infinity, but it just keeps building and building... rather than saying we're going to increase capacity 20% per year, you can take rea…

the shift that is just now happening is going from agents... into a set of agents operating that can operate basically as a user interfacing with the digital interface of anything on the web and soon…

I think over time on the enterprise side, there will be at least a few players, probably three or four, that are making that math work in some way. And they'll be in competition with each other, but …

take a gigawatt of data center, you can rent it to somebody for 10 billion dollars a year... and going up over time per year because it's harder and harder to build data centers on Earth... you get t…

SpaceX launching they are going to launch AI compute satellites and with the ability to have XAI directly deploy them or to sell that compute capability to others... I think it's likely just like wit…

I do think that the ultimate constraint here is the amount of compute that you have. And Elon with both the promise of future productization... there's a reasonable case to be made that they at least…

Elon's saying that digital optimist will basically be this super efficient lightweight model that can run on Tesla chips uh and maybe be the workhorse so to speak uh and then it will offload to the c…

I think we are still so early in this and it's like we're saying people are compute constrained but I don't even think we've started to see the degree to which constraints are going to occur if you g…

Nvidia has like 70 plus% gross margin. So if you could do the same thing on a chip that is, you know, um not 75% in the mix, but instead 25% in the mix, you can cut your cost of AI compute... by a lo…

It could be there's TPUs up there as well, you know, and that they have a a kind of like coopetition relationship with Google. um that derisks kind of their some of their capital expenditures to some…

Based on continued declines in sequencing costs, our research suggests that by 2030, the cost could fall by another order of magnitude, reaching roughly $10 per genome... AI-driven drug development h…

we expect this to transform the entire auto industry. We we think there'll be a lot of consolidation of today's players that, you know, are operating on legacy gas-powered platforms. We think that th…

really it's just a matter of you know the companies really executing on on that scale and with that scale we expect the cost per mile to um continue to undercut rideill prices today and that's really…

Tesla versus Whimo...the Model Y compared to the fifth generation Whimo car on an um incremental cost per mile basis is over 30% cheaper. Um we expect that uh advantage to only increase...the cyber c…

the lowest possible price that we think that a robo taxi platform could charge at scale is around 25 cents per mile...we think that that uh that reduction in cost will enable uh a great expansion of …

we think that robo taxis um by the end of the decade uh could generate $34 trillion in enterprise value opportunity...the total TAM um for revenue for Robbo taxis we think could be $10 trillion or ab…

right now they're only available in certain cities. the fleets are relatively small um compared to what we think they will be um over the next 5 years or so.

net we believe this will lead to um more than 7% compounded growth real in global in the global economy through the end of the decade

you are in a set of core equities that is not innovation exposed and those actually slightly decrease over the course of the decade as these innovation companies become wildly more valuable.

We think the near-term opportunity for cash flow generation is um the concept of satellite connectivity...at scale we think it could be a $ 160 billion annual revenue opportunity.

as folks like AIG and now other insurers and other businesses continue to adopt AI, what are the biggest bottlenecks to AI scaling over the next three years? Power, compute, data quality, regulation,…

we need, you know, hundreds of billions of dollars more compute invested here. Um, because these companies are short compute they need to deliver the services to their customers.

I think the the trend that we're seeing is the bottleneck ultimately being powered on compute...I would put that in the order um primarily compute um if you have the data centers and the power to uh …

I do think that the world needs a lot more compute...the continued expansion of fabs in the US in addition to Taiwan um that we have the chips in play to continue to build compute power and there's a…

There's a whole another, you know, between multiomics...embodied robotics including autonomous mobility and humanoid robots. We need more compute. we need trillions of dollars of compute and so we th…

with AI continuing to improve, we believe that there will be literally trillions of dollars in the central case is $7 trillion spent on AI software and that's more than enough to support more than a …

Antellia Therapeutics for instance is developing a gene editing treatment uh that has shown promising clinical data and we um estimate a uh real world price of 3 million but the valuebased price coul…

if you apply this to all the 7,000 patients that have hie in the US today, that represents a cost savings of 52 billion to the system.

it's much more likely that we'll see a new crop of competitors emerge from a lot of the incumbents today...more AI native, more agile...that change the forward expectations for revenue growth and pri…

cursor for software development, for example, just crossed a two billion run rate. Um, which, you know, this company is three years old and they're at $2 billion in run rate.

Commerce, which um AI agents will be able to transact for us and and make purchasing easier. Uh and in advertising, as we see attention shift into uh AI systems, I think that will move uh advertising…

blockchain technology and uh immutable digital property rights. Uh I think we're going to see an explosion there. So, we're really excited about the AI age, which we think is going to be a net job cr…

where it's at $1,000 per kilogram...when SpaceX executes on a full rocket, a fully reusable rocket...Starship rocket, we think that could extend to sub $100 per kilogram. And that's really where the …

going from that call $700 for the Falcon 9 to $100 or so from Starship brings on board AI space-based compute...The satellite requirement for space-based compute is at least 10x...expands the market …

Once they get the Starship...reusable, we think that the um cost per ton into orbit could fall into the low hundreds of dollars. And once you cross that threshold, then actually AI space-based comput…

if and as we colonize the moon or build a moon base and can do mass-based drivers, you can then service the earth...satellite constellation at around $10 a kilogram potentially...another order of mag…

markets will follow the macros. Uh and so we believe that more than um 60% of total equity market capitalization globally will acrue to disruptive innovation platforms...you need to be exposed to inn…

gene editing treatments are starting to move in vivo...common conditions including the world's leading killer which is cardiovascular disease...a valuebased price of 165,000...you get a 2.8 trillion …

as costs fall the amount of volume of tests increases...by 2030 we see that volume of tests doubling...And we see this scaling another 10x 2030.

the golden age for health care was in the 80s and 90s when returns on R&D spending hit 30% and now we're down in low to mid single digits. We believe that uh the returns...we're going to be back into…

we can see this from our own modeling um greatly reducing um by potentially 40% the time to time to market and by four-fold the cost to actually develop a drug.

while historically uh early stage assets have little to no economic value a AIdriven cure by comparison or contrast could be worth more than two billion per drug.

Today you can sequence a whole human genome for just $100. And looking forward to 2030, we see this dropping another magnitude down to about $10.

it's not the base case, but there is a real chance if agentic coding keeps doing what it does or even if you just take where it is today and then give corporates 24 months to implement that, then, yo…

currently sitting at 16% odds. Does that feel too high to you?...I did not know that couch existed. Uh again, I'm an optimist. I I think we're going to figure this out. I think that number is absolut…

your entire scenario is GDP is growing at like 10%, which we agree with. We think that could happen...where it's like labor share falls from, you know, you say 54% to 46% or something. If you do marg…

my belief is that I think right now AI is an important issue politically, but it is not the issue. It seems like by midterms it will be a top three issue and I don't see a world in which by 2028 it i…

one of the big concerns in the marketplaces these guys are spending more than their cash flow in investing in AI training data centers beyond even the inference data centers they need to support it..…

if all these new software companies are going to come and take market share from from Apple, right? From Google, and they're staffed at 1/10 or 1/50 of what these guys are in terms of revenue per emp…

if all these new software companies are going to come and take market share from from Apple, right? From Google, and they're staffed at 1/10 or 1/50 of what these guys are in terms of revenue per emp…

why is Quad growing so fast? Because people are...using it very aggressively and in the process, they need a lot less of kind of the SAS software that they buy off the shelf...when they come to renew…

if all these new software companies are going to come and take market share from from Apple, right? From Google, and they're staffed at 1/10 or 1/50 of what these guys are in terms of revenue per emp…

in three years if, you know, there we have more machine intelligence than we do human intelligence, what does that mean because like the entirety of our society is structured on this idea that human …

And I think it'll be three times better next year. Like I I do believe that.

will we see more big layoffs like Block's? I I don't know...these big incumbents are going to try to take margin and not hire, right? And I think that's just going to open up...opportunities for...en…

I think there's going to be an explosion in software developed...the entrepreneurial opportunity for that software developer is much much greater because the barriers to...launching it are much lower…

if all these new software companies are going to come and take market share from from Apple, right? From Google, and they're staffed at 1/10 or 1/50 of what these guys are in terms of revenue per emp…

Right now it is close to $90. It has soared about 50% since this um conflration uh started and we could see it going down uh below $50 uh uh per barrel. Right now as I said it's $90 per barrel. below…

And I would argue with the layoffs, they'll be even like better and higher over time because having a smaller team now allows you to, I think, ship more and do more um and so then deliver more servic…

the core thesis of the citrini piece is that GDP growth is 11% and consumption growth is collapsing and that math just doesn't play. So, we agree that like GDP could exceed 10% by the end of this dec…

luckily we have a forecast... AI being fully used by somebody makes them as a knowledge worker... roughly 50% more productive... fast-forward even on our optimistic case to 2030 fully utilized one un…

if you look at just the volume... sports betting globally... maybe a $500 billion a year industry... Derivatives tied to equities, commodities... that's a $750 trillion dollar opportunity. So, you ca…

And the financial adviser I think is you know at risk here over time as you have AI become very personal to the individual understand more of the individual than a financial adviser could ever it bec…

the world is so starved of compute right now... I am occupying some GPU in the cloud right now as much of like my work time as I possibly can... I think this is all a leading indicator to, you know, …

this is inevitable part of it is that you know whatever they're offering today the capability should expand over time and ultimately that means like people's capital will be probably more efficiently…

the idea that prediction markets are a huge opportunity fully bought in. But the idea that sports betting is going to be that opportunity couldn't be more bearish... It is what you described where yo…

sports betting opportunity maybe $500 billion end state... Derivatives is a $750 trillion annual volume industry... the future of this is basically like a risk transformation that doesn't currently e…

purchasing agents, we believe that over time you'll have essentially an AI assistant in your pocket going out on your behalf being able to make purchases across a variety of different marketplaces ta…

Tesla is working on the chips, but those are probably not ready for the next couple of years. I also think there's a lot of reasons to let Tesla appreciate and be recognized for its robo-taxi capabil…

I think then it's even more important for robo-taxi to demonstrate the value... Tesla's independent of its unit sale I mean unit sales are important as a kind of feedstock input into the model, but t…

if you believe Elon Musk then Optimus and Tesla should be the one that wins longer term... I'm pretty sure Elon tweeted at Cathy off of one of her takes that by 29 it should have a profound impact on…

on our estimates the the the difficulty of doing humanoid robot a general-purpose humanoid robot is 20 million times higher than doing a robo-taxi... 200,000 times harder than doing a robo-taxi... no…

specialized robots clearly increase in their capability with AI and with kind of lower cost to manufacture specialized parts. And combining the two actually should increase cause an inflection in the…

there are a lot of reasons to believe that China is well positioned for this emergent trend. Um Absent the fact that they don't have access to the most cutting edge chips from Nvidia.

entertainment is probably the best place to be positioned in all of this. And and to produce that Netflix content, somebody's going to have to be tasking the AI agent with like producing it

the electric vehicle industry. China is going to see year-over-year demand reduction in electric vehicle um for from in consumers purchasing, it looks like.

this idea that all of these robots are going to completely replace humans in the next couple of years is way overhyped. But, it's very clear what the end solution and end state here is, which is more…

they are underhyped if we go out 10 years, and I think they are overhyped if we look in the next 3 years.

we think that across, you know, crypto, um, as well as private and public that, um, innovation is going to make up, um, more than 60% of global market cap in our view by 2030... 2015 to 2020, uh, inn…

broadly speaking, we think this is a $26 trillion opportunity split roughly equally between uh manufacturing and household robotics.

Looking at Tesla's training compute capacity and its uh FSD's performance gains... using that we think humanoids will get to a point where it'll be commercializable just like how robot taxi robot tax…

non-inovation market cap so incumbent companies that are in all of the indices um will shrink over the next five years... if you're not successfully innovation exposed, you produce negative returns i…

Actually, over the latter half of this decade, we think we're going to average more than 7% real growth, up from basically 125 years of roughly 3% growth.

Salana... is still very much on a fee based valuation and revenue base but you know we believe as it's a winner takes most even on the smart contract uh L1's over time we could have like three or fou…

We believe these trends will accelerate software spend growth to between 19% and 56% depending on how aggressively enterprises adopt AI... spend scaling to $3 trillion... or almost 7 trillion in the …

we really think that the way that AI can scale their advertising business is to disrupt... search advertisements into the AI and agentic world... AI search can grow from anywhere from 10% today to ar…

part of that ultimate 28 trillion target uh is going to come out of uh the market cap capitalization of the smart contract cohort led by Ethereum and Solana... roughly a six trillion target by end of…

we think the the tokenized market uh could grow to 11 trillion in in 2030. And most of that would be um global public equities and and sovereign debt.

a target of about roughly 28 trillion by the end of 2030 across both cryptocurrency and smart contracts... cryptocurrencies on... monetarybased digital assets from two trillion into 16 trillion by en…

aggregate them to together cryptocurrency or monetary digital assets and smart contract assets the expectation is we can see a growth uh of up to roughly 60 61% kagger uh between now and the end of 2…

we think within that custom silicon could grow to a third or higher of spend as some of these projects like the TPU and tranium continue to scale.

we believe that this market is going to grow from around $20 billion today to around $900 billion in 2030 led by these indirect monetization opportunities

All in all, we think that um autonomous delivery revenue could reach 480 billion in 2030.

if ARC's GDP forecast is correct... roughly 7% annualized out to 2030, we believe power capex will roughly scale to roughly $10 trillion over the next 5 years... stationary energy storage will scale …

the macroeconomic growth is going to uh in our view yield um kind of market appreciation... innovation compounded at 18% 2020 to 2025 20% and we think it's going to accelerate

Based on ARC's best fit modeling of approval trends, the share of AI enabled diagnostics and devices is projected to rise from roughly 10% today to about 30% by 2030.

we think that as consumers uh, delegate more of their commerce activity to AI, we think that AI agents should capture a larger share of digital transactions... from about 2% in 2025 all the way up to…

through the rest of 2026... AMD is coming to market with their own rack scale solution called Helios that they expect to go toe-to-toe with Nvidia's next generation Vera Rubin... early indications ar…

AMD went from uh almost 0% market share in 2017 to 40% today in data center CPUs. And we think there's a similar share gain story possible for AMD in the data center space with regards to GPUs.

will the companies that do that 5 years from now be the same as the existing companies? Uh I don't think so. Um some will survive and do well, but I think they'll probably be a big consolidation uh r…

this write-down is bigger than Tesla's CapEx for its massive transition into uh autonomous and robotics. Right? So, you just have pretty much every major automaker giving up on electric at a time whe…

the companies that are going to stand out and do well and grow in this environment are the companies that are taking this new raw material... and applying it... into an enterprise in a unique and val…

the leverage is building up in those digital asset treasury companies and so kind of like the catastrophic unwind of this cycle which maybe you could argue is happening, but has to begin killing off …

the thing that seems short-term accretive to shareholders is to sell the assets and buy back shares. Uh but if you still don't go back to neutral to positive premium to your NAV and you keep trying t…

When you look at like a suite of tools like Microsoft... I don't think it's true. Like I think they will figure out how to bolt on AI and and and you know, ride this wave. It may be turbulent... but …

their agent force and data products are at 1.4 billion in ARR growing over 100% year-on-year... these products within some of the big SaaS footprints, they have a lot of room to deploy into their exi…

crypto as an industry is much more mature than it was in prior cycles and you kind of have this handoff happening between the early retail investors and more institutional... adopters... I think the …

Anthropic and OpenAI are going to be the you know, call it third largest software third and fourth largest software companies in the world by revenue leaving aside Microsoft and Google. You know, but…

If you look at kind of like our AI software expectations, you have a huge acceleration in the overall software market, you know, um from today.

you have our report saying, "Hey, this is a $7 trillion AI software opportunity by 2030." And they look at that and they say, "Hey, I want I need a piece of that actually to continue to be a dominant…

platforms along with the clouds that power them have been growing much faster than SaaS apps for a while and I think AI is likely to accelerate that... I think there's still going to be growth and I …

At a high level at ARK, we think that um stablecoins will scale to on the order of $5 trillion in value by our two to five by 2030. And so it's clear that these are useful instruments for people to u…

I agree with you. We are watching you know, Gen Z around the world um leading protests... they're seeing devaluations and inflation... I do think there is that revolt coming from the the bottom up...…

Well, it's like even just Ethereum rising or Solana rising are manifestations of that. You know, Bitcoin is kind of like at least a more pure kind of uncensorable chain than these other chains are an…

I do think money's are a winner-take-most game... we have seemed to cross a threshold where hey, these global money's are available and then everybody becomes US dollar dependent so we need insurance…

the chip market is is going to um transform or evolve I should say uh in the next five years uh a little bit uh from e uh GPUs taking share uh to AS6 t [ASIC] taking share. And so, uh, we've, um, hig…

Tesla has... relatively obvious forecastable... we think extreme cash flows that are going to come from robo taxi... it's pretty explicitly not getting credit for what seem to be pretty obvious opera…

Tesla also had earnings last week... they're shutting down the SNX factory and using it to build robotics... up until now Tesla has become what it is by making human-driven electric vehicles. And it'…

they think they're getting great ROI on vertical integration and I think this is contrarian... they're going to get their robo taxi business up and spinning. And they're going to need like a luxury r…

space over a medium time call it 10-year time frame it's very bettable that there's a larger volume of AI compute in space than on the ground... If you take Elon's plans uh at rough face value, you e…

SpaceX before was going to do, you know, 40,000 satellites, now they're going to do... a million satellites... they need 20x moreish satellites... the majority of SpaceX's business becomes launching …

you can bet the person who has access to the most compute the quickest is going to win and that's why you would bet on XAI... the company that has access to the most compute will have won... the move…

it seems like our consensus is that it's most likely or most sensible for a merger with XAI... I think the prediction markets suggest that it is the most likely. So that's what I'm going off of there…

our research might point towards $1.5 trillion being cheap... the AI compute opportunity is there... they go from a 40,000 satellite constellation to a million satellite constellations... in our work…

they're on a 10 billion revenue run rate for Gen AI video creation tied to their advertising platform... they actually really did nail AI... folding it into the core business and seeing the growth ex…

as like the internet just becomes a giant slot machine for AI content... their hours spent on the internet will be monetized at much higher rate because you'll be able to personalize the experience x…

I think we're we're in the next three years we're crossing the chasm... originally it was created to connect humans who know each other together... currently... connecting humans with people they don…

the recommendation algorithm that the metas of the world run become increasingly more valuable because they determine... how much time you spend... if these companies nail the recommendation algorith…

The fact that you can power the chat backend with an AI tool that's increasingly performant makes those much more valuable potential ad units than they were before... as that agent becomes more effec…

what's interesting about Meta is you could make a reasonable assumption that Meta through its... merchant advertising products that are tied to AI plus all of the incremental advantages it's getting …

Google still being here and trying to compete is really important to this XAI SpaceX entity because the if XAI can't monetize you have to have somebody that buys that incremental compute from you and…

Google um or deep mind figured out how to read not just the exo but all of the... full stretch of genome... a whole genome is now more valuable... from a very high level it means that you know you co…

if you look at the gold oil ratio there as well, you see it blinking the the traditional signal that gold is overvalued... and it's a time to actually exchange and and go back to oil.

Lorenzo, 2030... the convergence of technologies... if we had to pick one company where we actually see that uh it's probably Tesla right I mean >> well the Musk >> Yeah. Exactly.

we do believe that the the biggest revenue generating opportunity during the next 5 to 10 years is autonomous mobility of all kinds, autonomous taxis, drones for delivery, air taxis... we think the t…

the other new world is space... When I hear Elon talk about... the orbital data center opportunity... we've got the moon, we've got Mars, we've got a lot to do... if we didn't have Elon and this move…

Now, you can go to chat GBT and and basically say... this is my business idea. I need to figure out where to start and just start vibe coding... Nothing. So I think this is going to be I we're going …

now that of course price of gold is so hot... the supply side is starting is going to get affected later this year... a lot of mines that weren't profitable are going to become profitable... the supp…

if you look at gold relative to M2, uh we're at a 1.56... only one time we've been higher... I think we're in rarified territory. If I were a holder of gold, I would be uncomfortable... >> You'd be s…

I see support at around 14 oz which would be... like $65,000 and then I see resistance at more like 25 oz which would be like $120,000... I think eventually we'll push through it. I think it's going …

I do think uh investors are going to cycle back from gold to Bitcoin... there was a rally in gold that was then followed by a Bitcoin rally in 2013... all the signs are really positive for Bitcoin. I…

if you look at gold relative to M2, uh we're at a 1.56... only one time we've been higher... I think we're in rarified territory. If I were a holder of gold, I would be uncomfortable... >> You'd be s…

haven't changed our price target in a number of years... stable coins usurping one of the roles we thought Bitcoin would play... But that doesn't mean that the digital gold rule is going away. In fac…

Digital... No, no, no, no. We did not have immutable property rights until very recently thanks to blockchain technology. So we are now just entering a a and creating a digital world that can be mone…

that is the largest AI project we think on earth... The most profound AI project is in healthcare. We are going to diagnose diseases... in their earliest stages or before as they're setting up. Uh we…

the main competition for Canton is actually... the main public chains, right? Ethereum, Salana, etc... the private permission chains are silos. Uh I I don't see uh a long-term use for them... some of…

I just think I think this is going to shift really from retail to institutional in terms of market making and so forth... prediction markets will be 247 as well... I agree these mark these markets ar…

the next year, the next five years... I think that um uh most liquid assets will move onchain in the next five years. So you know DTCC holds hundred trillion dollars of assets. I think that a majorit…

most of them are on venues where every single position and trade is transparent... I don't think that large institutions... want to broadcast to the world the trades that they're doing. And so there …

private credit projects on top of Canton... that's obviously an asset class that's growing rapidly... potential implication to uh bank balances if stable coins as stable coins take off. Um so you kno…

I've been in this market for too long to say oh no we've definitely bottom because I've seen wild markets before. But I I do think as onchain analytics support this thesis about institutions as you c…

the working number that I'm hearing... is Michael Sailor's or or Strategies average cost, which is $74,000 in and around there... Maybe we will get some some news event which will take Bitcoin down t…

David Puel does our onchain analytics and you know he he is looking at the market and he thinks there is an underlying bid that is preventing a much a much steeper correction... meaning our instituti…

Kathy, you're kind of of the mind that we've seen the lows. The low was 80K and and it's uh you know up and to the right from here... I agree in general with the premise that institutions are buying …

At a high level, we think that around um by 20 35% of um glo global financial value will be tokenized... we think there's going to be a quadrillion dollars of financial assets uh globally by 2030... …

they're either gonna they'll either backfill the hardware 3 vehicles, meaning they'll compress the model, so FSD unsupervised will be capable, but you'll be just a year behind the rest of us, you kno…

Tesla took um previously in Austin they're operating robo taxis... Now they have begun to take the person out of the passenger seat... ultimately this should lead to Tesla being able to scale Roboaxi…

the system is only going to get more robust to kind of interference and noise over time not less robust... once they cross that then kind of like the set of hardware that it'll be available on will g…

But given I think I think the software solution is almost certainly going to be the solution that they use

chat GPT alone was annualizing at around 45 billion um user hours globally... at 25 cents an hour which is more like Netflix type monetization... you get to uh the potential for at their current uh s…

given that we think this is the ultimate business model and that open AI needs to continue funding investment in compute to serve new users and for R&D and that this executed well emphasis on execute…

The majority of which is coming through advertising. Um uh the second big component of that which would be around like $ 160 billion is coming through that take rate fee. So that 4% across the board …

uh yeah high level we um estimate we spend today um across software and cloud um kind of compute infrastructure about just under $1.5 trillion annually today globally... we think between uh three hal…

But betting against AI capability improvements right now is a horrible horrible idea.

we believe that the data center infrastructure cycle, which is at about 500 billion now, up from up two and a half times from pre-chat GPT, that that is actually going to 1.4 trillion dollars per yea…

It allows us to generate yield itself... We want to have an actual operating business that will generate cash flow, something that will be there in bull markets and in bare markets... I don't think w…

today it's tens of thousands of transactions per second. We're seeing in the lab over 100,000 transactions per second potentially scaling to millions.

it's a growthoriented asset it's got all of the capabilities of the things that came before it like Ethereum, but it's still early in its development. It's highly volatile. The price, I should say, i…

we have a point of view remains to see be seen if it's true that this is just like every debt a winner takemost opportunity and so we were evaluating each of them

with all of the throughput that Salana can offer uh we'll see Poly Market's role expand. Um but I think we'll also see onchain poly markets onchain prediction markets happen... Salana has the through…

it'll be more decentralized in the future... For high performance computing, high throughput applications, if you want to rebuild Wall Street on a blockchain, actually I think you're going to do it o…

for the long term I think that that is how blockchains will express themselves in a world of high performance computing and in a world of AI those things are all going to happen on Salana we're going…

I think it's a a fantastic place to focus your energy right now. I think it's the best place in crypto. It's not the only place but it's really good place to focus your energy and that's where I'm in…

our confidence has increased actually as we've learned more and more especially about what's going on in the Middle East. So as you said and as our trading shows we have increased our position... we …

Why go through all that? Why would you not just do that all at the base layer on Salana? I think that's the future. I think that's where Wall Street is headed and that's why Soulmate is focusing on S…

there's no doubt in his mind that that's uh that's what Salana will do and that Ethereum cannot do and I think all of us are just trying to find our way into this new financial world transformed fina…

the onchain poly market the next poly market the next evolution of that is going to want to colllocate with a validator that is validating those transactions where milliseconds matter I would say if …

they are way ahead of us in um in drones and EV talls and so forth. In fact, many of our companies are commercializing first in the Middle East because our regulators have been dragging their feet.

I actually think that's going to happen again if we get the the this Fed controversy behind us because the Trump policies are Reagan's policies and some of them are on steroids... the return on inves…

in the meantime, I do think rates will come down because uh the unemployment rate will continue up... I do think that the combination of inflation coming down and I think dramatically we could see ne…

we're going to be in um I think a very strong bull market. I'm very happy we're everybody's worried about this market but I I think we're in a strong bull market.

Right now, we're in a lined up period where people are very excited by it and it requires a lot of capital and so there's a lot of companies that are like making bids, but there will be a winnowing. …

if you look at uh new homes for sale they are meaning the builders are carrying this inventory uh they are near record highs uh almost as high as they were in 2007 when we were in the middle of a hou…

if Siri is actually just if all Siri does is just clicking the microphone button to Gemini then that's like a extremely low friction and probably useful mechanism where that could become a lot of peo…

Google's doing it because they get some TPU business out of it. like Google is GCP is involved here clearly... this maybe fills in a piece for them, but I think it's probably more enterprise salriven…

the promise of DeFi is actually a lot of assets that previously were hard to take leverage against can become leverable in in a more profound way. And so there there over time I think there will be m…

in terms of supply out there, it is starting to build and I think it's going I think we will see house prices come. We're already seeing it. KB Home uh their pricing down 7% year-over-year. Uh and I …

Previously to be the default search engine on their browser, Google had to pay them what was it $20 billion a year... Now Apple... is having to turn around and repeatedly pay Google somewhere around …

if we're right, the dollar is stabilizing here after a decline in uh 2025 and will reverse course much like it did during the early 80s in the early 80s with regonomics and we think that this adminis…

we wouldn't be surprised to see long rates back into the 3% range in an inverted yield curve environment... but if you look back at the last time we were in an innovation cycle like this late 1800s e…

if we're right on the outlook for earnings um and and revenue, GDP growth, uh then we're going to see very rapid growth during the next two and a half to three years. Very rapid growth. And so we bel…

I think that's exactly what happens from the free market... That's exactly what Block did. And now you... have another competitor that is a really strong competitor and it'll only get stronger and st…

if Block enables stable coins and Jack has hinted that... if there's demand pull uh he will uh and Block will satisfy it and I think there is going to be demand pull from stable coin. So I I do think…

I think this is just the beginning of US adoption. So I do think the dimminimous tax exemption comes into play... Merchants will then train their staff... I think Square and Block are going to play a…

The second thing that I think we'll see next year is a big surprise in GDP growth because of the OB3 and the corporate tax deductions... if you start building it by the end of 28... depreciate it 100…

I wouldn't be touching any of these dats or anything. I think I'm I'm in 2026. I continue to be a bear on that.

we at at Cleansark, we're we're mining, you know, say 500 to 600 Bitcoin a month... we're investing in this business to ultimately drive more Bitcoin to the balance sheet... we can then use these sop…

I'm pretty confident that 2026 is going to bring an absolute Cambrian explosion in adoption from a from a corporate um sovereign and municipal perspective with with Bitcoin linked credit... what we'r…

we do have the question of four-year cycle. Is this it? And was 80-ish,000 the low? Uh so we'd like to see a test here and if we can get by this year or this cycle uh with a 30 plus% drop instead of …

I think you see that like the the players that are entering the space... they're building stuff on top of Bitcoin or using crypto. They're not here for six months or a year... I think like volatility…

Bitcoin mining cannot centralize because it's the free market... it's a competition for lower cost energy and higher higher compute all across the globe and that's why this thing just decentralizes c…

I think we're headed in this direction... the normalization of uh Bitcoin, the dtaboization of Bitcoin, just people looking at it as a technology that they can now use as money... I think we're movin…

I think that they are getting ready to do that. Um I don't I don't think this is going to be something that gets included in market structure, but I think the good news is that given that President T…

I think this technology only gets better over time... once people sort of get that cheap energy basically equals money, equals the best money in the world, that's going to have a tremendous effect on…

2026 uh is in the US the midterm elections... I have a feeling uh that he is going to work uh with his crypto and AISAR... make sure we get that dimminimous uh uh ruling through... So I I actually th…

for 2026, I think we're going to see more corporate and nation state adoption... I wouldn't be surprised in Europe uh to see at least a couple of countries uh um put Bitcoin... I think uh in 2026 we'…

bold predictions for 2026... I do think we're going to see a much more decentralization in hash rate as some of these larger players that have huge Bitcoin mining specific farms start to reallocate t…

these convergences, um, are going to unleash incredible entrepreneurial... expeditions and, uh, I think AI as well in in the loop here is going to be very important

people will come public in order to efficiently do that. So yes, I take a yes on Enthropic coming public. >> Wait. >> And a yes on SpaceX coming public.

Elon's move is to say, well, I figured out a way around this... energy constraint and but you just have to have an orbital class reusable rocket in order to exploit it... It's not for this year and n…

Rivian is clearly setting itself up to be acquired by Google. That's my view. >> Amazon. >> Google. You're saying for Whimo? >> Yeah, for Whimo... they're basically crying out like, "Please acquire u…

as we move into 2026 I think we're more in like the 97 space... I think we're going to hit this period where one the real meaningful companies are going to IPO... and then you're going to get this fl…

it's safe to say that you think 2026 the mismatch of supply and demand for chips blows out even further. >> Yes.

in chip space I think that the wherever the choke point is will suddenly become very expensive... energy was the choke point of the year and probably will be the choke point of the year to come

I think that's exactly where we're going to be... the underlying operating systems which I'm defining here as the foundation models are going to capture probably the majority or plurality value in th…

I think the voice models are a different experience and user interface they're actually arguably more sticky than anything else... I can't imagine that the consumer side is going to live in the text …

the meta glasses do the same thing. I think that with a forward-facing camera is the device of the future... if you were to just put a camera on that I think that's the next wearable device.

I do think that there's the potential that being able to train these things full stack actually results in just more performance... over time more of it gets absorbed into the bottom layer but that m…

if you look at the numbers now voice as a percentage of total search... low single digits I think there's reason to believe it will be higher double digits maybe 20 30% of total prompt volume

I think voice will be not a majority. I think text will still be a majority of consumer interactions... but at home I think voice will you'll you'll end up doing the majority of your prompting via vo…

I think that's exactly where we're going to be... the underlying operating systems which I'm defining here as the foundation models are going to capture probably the majority or plurality value in th…

Can I just pick a a long shot... I like the idea that Freddy Mack and Franny May are both sitting at roughly 30%. I'll take those odds.

Can I just pick a a long shot... I like the idea that Freddy Mack and Franny May are both sitting at roughly 30%. I'll take those odds.

Anthropic and OpenAI and XAI and Google are making a big bet... You just need a huge amount of capital to do that... you actually have to get into the public markets... So yes, I take a yes on Enthro…

anthropic at 50% chance... to IPO in 27. >> Yes... the reason to believe that Anthropic will go public... It's actually extremely valuable to have your finances... audited... be able to sell into lar…

stable coins are usurping one of the roles we expected Bitcoin to play. But on the other hand, uh digital gold, Bitcoin, uh had uh a lot of company from gold this year in terms of showing us the way.…

Uh but this idea of a a super app could it include commerce of sorts uh because that's a real super app social media commerce and the only reason I'm asking the question here is because you know we h…

Nick did this work uh about the average uh life of a bank account... when we did that study, which was probably 5 years ago... the average was 16 years... it doesn't make sense... this would not be t…

in 2025, we think everything is now becoming synthetic as we or tokenized... we'll move stocks and real estate, dollar dominance is going to be the opportunity of Ethereum... And so in that world, we…

you've at Bitmine you've laid out a 5% you want to capture five% of the supply... 10% um is is actually still an acceptable level... So I think up to 12 million Ethereum tokens isn't crowding and tha…

Ethereum went from proof of work to proof of stake. Now, in the next 5 years, I mean, we just think about all of the creativity that is going to evolve in the financial markets around Ethereum. We to…

Bitmine both want to get 5% of Ethereum that's 10% held and a few others. So if you end up with 15 to 20% permanently staked that is going to provide I think a high level of security

take our forecast for a second and I know you've laid out an Ethereum number that suggests on the order of $7 trillion in network value for Ethereum I think um but you know take 25 trillion is the fu…

we have in 2030 a forecast of the entire crypto asset ecosystem... the ecosystem we expect to hit $25 trillion in 2030, the vast majority of that uh in Bitcoin.

I am still a Bitcoin bull. So I'm very bullish on Bitcoin and I I believe your uh targets for Bitcoin are actually reachable. So I, you know, we think Bitcoin fair value should at least be 1.5 to 2.1…

We really do believe uh especially with this new administration that deregulation and incentives for innovation are going to cause an absolute explosion and innovation of all kinds and and you're rig…

SpaceX shares before they IPO. I think we're going to see an explosion of ideas around that sector. So can you build private market indexes in any way? You know there's there's I think there's a lot …

for kind of the AI companies for SpaceX for even for Stripe for companies that are providing really global infrastructure... those companies I think are are going to become they're going to need kind…

there's going to be a moment in time where for every year that you're alive, science is extending your life for more than a year... Rey Ry feels like we're going to get there by the end of the year 2…

We asked teams to develop uh a therapeutic that within one year of time if given to you will reverse the ravages of aging for your cognition, immune and muscle by a minimum of 10 years, a goal of 20 …

stable coins now in terms of, uh, of volume are doing between two trillion and 2.5 trillion per month. And that has been pretty stable from January to now... if you look forward I think the projected…

If we combine Circle and Tether uh as one entity, they would be the 20th biggest holder of US Treasury debt in the world. Um, and we believe uh in the coming five years as we model the growth of stab…

you have Tesla who's talked about uh they were trying to make roughly 10,000 uh generalizable Optimus robots this year. that got pushed slightly as they um decided to go for a third version which the…

I think treasuries are just the beginning. I mean there's only $8 billion of tokenized treasuries and this $200 billion of tokenized dollars. That makes no sense. Tokenized treasuries should eventual…

I do believe the same appetite for you know stocks exist. It's just that it's not available. So once we the same way that tokenized dollars have exploded to $300 billion... once we start tokenizing s…

I do believe that in the near future companies will still IPO into markets... the same way that you have today like a five or 10% allocation for the retail crowd... you're going to have the 5 to 10% …

maybe at the beginning you get one or two and then you get 10 and then from 10 you go to 100 and from 100 you go to thousand and as people and this ultimately becomes what every single company will d…

the third one is the one we discuss tokenized uh public equities... I think it will come and when it come and it happens and it will happen slowly and then at some point it will explode and every sin…

look if you ask me a few years ago I would have thought that this is going to collapse into like two or three chains maybe and it seems to be going in the opposite direction that we're going to have …

at some point everything will come on chain right so but if you ask me are you going to hire 10 people to go after tokenized real estate tomorrow the answer is no

Hopefully private blockchains will disappear now because I think that's more a glorified database and nothing particularly useful to anybody... I I think we will there will be a winnowing.

The low end of those projections is that the the the total size of tokenized assets is going to be around $2 trillion... if the market goes to $2 trillion and we reduce our market share to 10%... we'…

Yeah, we're strong supporters of their platform. We think tokenization of real world assets is actually there's plenty of evidence that it's already exploding as in uh you know fund issuers are sayin…

I think that there's going to be the first interesting tokenization projects for real estate will be trophy assets... I think we will first see some trophy assets very well known that retail people w…

my next north north north star is you know 10 billion next year which will more than double our assets but I think that five year from now I want to be above 100 million because that means if there's…

our estimate is we think there's a quadrillion dollars by 2030 in financial assets in the economy and those are going to kind of flow over into becoming tokenized assets... even at a slow adoption ra…

There's $4.5 trillion of digital wallets out there that could become bigger if they have options to consume other assets that maybe less volatile that that have a cash flow... Is that going to make l…

It occurs to me that tokenization could be like if you imagine the emerging market... there's demand for some kind of equity like exposure and people have only basically been able to go into Bitcoin …

Gold dropped from 1900 to 1,50. So that was a 45% drop. uh and we would not be surprised to see something like that happen during the next four to five years.

My my guess is we we will see a leg down uh toward that two and a half 3% range uh and that will be uh closer to the new range uh for for the next for the next few years.

we believe uh that that that uh the Bitcoin to gold ratio will resume its uptrend

my own personal belief is that this is not yet the end of the cycle. ... liquidity will come into the system and it'll resolve and it'll be like, "Oh my gosh, everybody was wrong. These guys aren't t…

there's really no one else spending this amount of money on this type of technology. I mean, we don't know exactly what Apple's doing. We saw what Google did a decade ago, but we don't have any defin…

my guess on this is that these are going to be underpowered. It's going to be the early adopters that use them... but it's like if a year from now they have another iteration of these that's better a…

once the hardware and tech is actually there for the cost. I think these become a meaningful part of how you interact with the digital world... That's when you're going to start seeing this become mo…

I would I would bet on Meta's velocity and trajectory here um relative to Apple even though they're AirPods.

Robin Hood on the brokerage side clearly taking share from these legacy financial institutions that have trillions under custody... Coinbase on the real core banking side SoFi you could throw in ther…

there's probably heavy overlap with Coinbase and traditional big banks in the US and those customers... maybe I should hold more assets over here because they're offering me a better deal than the th…

I think it's a compelling product offering... a real change in kind of at least their willingness to provide services that are directly competitive with banks in a meaningful and profound way... why …

I think we've been talking about digital wallets for 10 years now... I think it's starting to happen in a real way... Robin Hood I think clearly better on a UI perspective than any other brokerage...…

Hot take. But I actually think AirPods because... you ultimately want to be as unobtrusive as you possibly can to the consumer... asking... billions of people to wear glasses all day every day, that'…

relative to kind of like this value creation event that we think robo tax is going to occur or create um unveil for Tesla. um the trillion should be measured against the you know enterprise value cre…

If you think about like the product development of Robin Hood from the beginning, has always been we're going to lower costs uh such that we're really the only game in town... That plus product veloc…

it's probably not good for Robin Hood. makes going to the app even better and much better experience. They're probably getting some new customers as well just with this or people on the app longer or…

Yeah, I mean I think this is in line. Uh this is sort of the performance gains that we're we're expecting... I think we're going to continue to see declines on the cost side of things as well... thes…

it seems like every week it's just a new bigger number a a larger cluster... it is massively consolidating the space... if you're talking about hundreds of billions of dollars there's not a lot of co…

you're seeing them spend very aggressively, but I think the opportunity this time makes significantly more sense... investors maybe seeing uh signs of uh you know repetition in in you know Zuckerberg…

if you look at that open router data it's the cheaper models and the more efficient models that are really seeing the most usage. So when these reasoning models start to dip down into that price rang…

Maybe for the uh maybe for the 200th episode of Brainstorm, all three of us will be generated by V5 V6... So, I I don't think we even make it to 150 before we're completely out of the loop.

How many other companies? I mean, you have Google that could say it. Amazon if they wanted to start playing in this space, which doesn't seem like we're hearing much... Apple has it on their balance …

we think we think it will resolve on the upside here, not on the downside

we think interest rates will come down um before all is said and done

Apple's franchise is under threat by AI in a way that they probably haven't been since their Inception... AI is a threat to Apple's app store distribution model

we think that the the the ratio of the S&P to gold will reverse that the gold price will settle down and the S&P price will go up relative to gold again

we think uh that this uh trend line will continue to move up if we're right that we're moving back into a riskon environment

we expect more than a t-fold increase during the next five years in the market cap of those

we expect uh the mag six not all of them. We worry about Apple as we've told you many times. uh somewhat uh alphabet as well but all of them have uh will be touched in some way uh by dis disruption t…

we think Bitcoin could go to a million dollars a coin by 2030. that's at the higher end of our for or that's you know the midpoint between the middle of our forecast and the high end

stablecoins are now up to 250 billion and we expect them to go to 1.4 trillion in the next 5 years

Bloomberg commodity index has dropped back to to 100 uh and um and and probably will continue to go down

the 10-year Treasury bond yield probably will continue uh to come down

we do think over time Bitcoin will appreciate relative to gold and as you can see, it has not broken uh the uptrend line

we think oil prices are going to go down quite a bit

we're beginning to believe that the interest rate will crack now uh and that will help housing

I do believe that this bull market I is will continue to broaden out uh and perhaps be one of the strongest bull markets in history

current forecast is uh close to 10 trillion but I think it's around 8 trillion in AI software spend 2030

Bitcoin um we have not changed our price Target in quite some time and you can see the building blocks uh associated with the price Target our bull case has um has the probability of it we believe ha…

this is actually a visualization of our expectation for the aggregate market cap across the technologies that we um you know Dimension uh cast forward to 2030 and we think that 2third of equity marke…

Tesla as Daniel mentioned plans to launch this year and we're excited because this could be the year of Robo taxis actually scaling we believe that Tesla has an inherent cost Advantage because it's a…

our bitcoin price targets are showing a bare case a base case and a bull case so in in the bare case for 2030 we have a price target of 300,000 per Bitcoin which implies a kager of 21% uh as the B ba…

we expect the magix to go from 16 trillion today to 60 trillion so that's about a four-fold increase

the returns on R&D to the Pharma and biotech sector as they Embrace these new technologies is going to uh move up from the low single digits it's been in a very bad place for about a decade to anywhe…

many people know us for our bull case $1.5 million and we actually think the odds have gone up that our bull case will be the right number

if we're right then the value associated with truly disruptive innovation during the next five years in the equity markets we believe is going to rise from 12 trillion to $140 trillion more than tenf…

the value associated with truly disruptive innovation during the next five years in the equity markets we believe is going to rise from 12 trillion to $140 trillion more than tfold

we believe the tug-of war will resolve to the upside

we expect uh nearly a quadrupling over the next uh over the next five years

we expect the oil price to go down as uh Transportation goes electric and as we go more and more nuclear over time

we expect uh the Bitcoin to go gold ratio to continue moving up uh as as it has really uh in a trend sense since it began

for truly disruptive uh Innovation we expect more than a tenfold increase in market cap

we would submit that oil production in the us if we do get that extra 3 million Barrel is going to weigh on the oil price going forward uh and be good for the S&P 500

we'll probably see the earnings of smaller companies start Rising relative to larger companies in the years ahead especially if again this Administration does uh help engineer lower inflation and int…

Bitcoin will be responding more to its role uh as a a technology and a new asset class than to its role like gold as a store of value and it should continue to pull away from gold in the years ahead

we are in print the Bold case being 1.5 million and while we have changed uh the way in which we get there we do believe we're going to get there especially uh given this Administration sponsorship o…

very recently you've seen the S&P going up and the gold price going down uh if that continues this this um chart will resolve to the upside uh and that is our bet um that at the very least the S&P pr…

wouldn't be surprised to see that happen... that would take us back to $30 roughly $30 per share uh so that would be less than half of where we are right now wouldn't be surprised to see that happen

I think this is going to be a golden moment for equities I I think it's going to be better than the 80s and 90s

if you look at what happened after those concentrated periods uh we moved into a bull market that broadened out so that's our bet that's our bet

the multiomics genomic Revolution strategies have been quite disadvantaged and I think they have a lot a lot of catching up to do

so we do believe there will be a downward pressure on interest rates maybe even more than uh many investors expect in the near term

that is Goldilocks that uh that the market is seems to be building that uh Outlook into the... valuation uh because this is hugely positive for valuations long rates staying low... gold is worried ab…

the bet is on we are betting that the S&P is uh if the progrowth regime does come into uh Power the that this line will move up the S&P will start Rising faster than gold

we expect the opposite we expect oil prices to continue falling

it feels like there's this Calm before the storm... some of these uh very influential people and in Industry leaders amongst our communities and state communities I could see this as the the next you…

with this upcoming election you know and institutional adoption institutional investors basically incorporating it as a default to their portfolio we're now entering a phase where Bitcoin becomes thi…

there still is a massive gap between what we think bitcoin's long-term value could could look like and where we are today right bitcoin's at a trillion and a half dollars of of market capitalization …

the more that you know we hear people we would not have expected to talk about Bitcoin like these State treasurers or Pension funds... the more I think the rest of the world is going to pay attention…

the CFO of Florida basically took note that Michigan and Wisconsin have Bitcoin on their balance sheets... they put out a call for a study... this idea that oh wait a minute uh these other states are…

thank you Bitcoin it's also going to uh be a a a warning for monetary authorities... you're looking at competition here... people are worried about inflationary ramifications that's what they keep sa…

the institutionalization means means uh a lot more people will have exposure uh to bitcoin you know ETFs uh they are probably half and half retail and institutional now... retirement uh accounts... p…

when the markets are pushing up like this and there's really no hype there's some real demand uh developing somewhere now maybe it is continued institutional demand as more and more uh as more and mo…

I'm just not much more of a believer that uh that alltime high is around the corner... I don't know what breaks uh us into new high territory uh but maybe it is the election... clearly the the Trump …

what we've been expecting is is going to happen on steroids and that is the five major Innovation platforms... robotics energy storage artificial intelligence blockchain technology and multiomic sequ…

I think the ramifications are going to be unbelievable for Innovation regulations are strangling uh businesses... getting gendler out of the way he will be gone... Trump definitely will that's the FD…

we think that this ai ai Foundation model layer of the value chain is going to going to be worth between 15 and 20 trillion by 2030... there will be a $13 trillion market for AI software as a whole..…

we do expect the FED funds rate to continue down

what they're doing for the Creator space is you the only way to think about it is there's probably never been another time in human history to have some level of influence and fame because you can op…

investors and everyone else following this story now is okay with the capex spend because they're able to justify it right you're seeing the AI Suite of products being rolled out into their current p…

obviously there's a lot that we're so excited about and they kind of demoed a really beefy glasses that have some really cool holographic capabilities and hand tracking and this NextGen neural wristb…

meta AI... is at a 500 million monthly active user install base and I think 185 million on a weekly basis... they are I think in my opinion leading in terms of the meate tech companies when it comes …

I think you're starting to see their playbook a bit and how they're approaching Ai... this is becoming a story of a new operating system AI is the operating system for a new consumer Hardware set whi…

they found a pretty stable form factor in glasses where it's just the right size to be able to fit a good amount of compute on the device to fit a camera to fit speakers... I think they're going to s…

I think if meta is really wanting to get out from Apple and Google and their operating systems on the mobile side they have a way to now back in assuming these glasses take off... maybe we see some a…

should Apple have showed off the Vision Pro as here's a developer unit... it's going to be better in three to three to five years which it will be but now it seems more like a flop in meta running ci…